ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 3:55 AM EDT165
FXUS61 KILN 170755
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the
Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then
build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the
upcoming work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has
moved into northwest portions of our fa early this morning. This
is moving into a less unstable environment, so expect to see a
continued weakening/dissipating trend over the next couple of
hours.
A low pressure system will continue to spin slowly east across
the central Great Lakes today. A trough axis/cold front
extending south from the low will push slowly east into western
portions of our area through late afternoon. As we destabilize
through this afternoon, expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms become more numerous through mid to late
afternoon. Strengthening wind fields/increasing deep layer
shear will lead to the potential for a few severe storms later
this afternoon. The best chance for this appears to be along
and south of the Ohio River, where CAMs are showing the best
updraft helicities in the 21Z-00Z time frame. Damaging winds
and perhaps some large hail would be the main threat.
Highs today will be mostly in the 85 to 90 degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening with the loss
of daytime heating, with mainly dry conditions expected
overnight. As the upper level low pushes slowly east across the
lower Great Lakes on Sunday, the trailing upper level trough
axis will push slowly east across our area. As we destabilize
through the afternoon, fairly widespread showers and a chance
of thunderstorms can be expected once again Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will not be as warm though with afternoon highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Axis of H5 trough will deepen over the OH/PA border overnight and
exit to the east on Monday. Northerly flow over a deep portion of
the atmosphere will push in cold air for the Ohio Valley. One last
night with lows in the lower 60s Sunday night will then be replaced
with readings 5-8 degrees below normal. Lower 50s through Wednesday
night, mid-upper 50s Thursday night, and near 60 Friday night.
Daytime highs will follow a similar curve with temps again 5-8
degrees below normal through Wednesday. Highs will be warmest in the
south and coolest in west central Ohio, all within 2 or 3 degrees of
75. Near normal highs Thursday will be near 80 or in the low 80s,
and warm to the mid 80s on Friday.
Some lingering showers in the southeast Monday evening will quickly
give way to dry conditions, with the dry forecast continuing through
Friday.
A surface high north of the CWA will track east on Wednesday,
trailing a surface ridge over the region through Thursday night. The
ridge passes to the south and return flow sets up, permitting a
somewhat stronger warming over the CWA. Upper ridging over the mid
sections of the country will be in play through the entirety of the
extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms moving across central
Indiana this morning will continue to push east toward our area
over the next couple of hours. This is moving into a less
favorable environment, so expect to see an overall weakening
trend with these storms. Nonetheless, suppose they could hold
together into at least northwest portions of our area, so will
allow for a couple hour period of a VCSH at KDAY to account for
this. Elsewhere across our area, some MVFR br has been
developing, with some IFR to LIFR vsby restrictions in some of
the river valleys. This will persist through daybreak before
the vsbys begin to improve.
Otherwise, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to become
more numerous as we destabilize this afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall and brief IFR vsbys will be possible with the
afternoon storms. This activity will taper off as we head into
this evening with partial clearing developing. However, some
MVFR to IFR cigs and perhaps some areas of MVFR br will
develop late tonight into early Sunday morning.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 3:55 AM EDT---------------
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