LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 15, 10:54 AM EDT432
FXUS63 KLMK 151454
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1054 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Active pattern with many chances of showers and storms through
Wednesday.
* The most likely periods for dry weather are Wednesday night
through Thursday morning and Sunday night through Monday
morning.
* The active pattern will continue for the next several days. The
most likely days for the most widespread showers and storms will
be Friday-Saturday and possibly Tuesday. The main threat from
these showers and storms will be locally heavy rain and possible
flooding, with severe weather a lesser threat.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Deformation band of light rain continues to stretch across the
Bluegrass and north central KY. It is associated with a sfc low
located over north central and eastern KY. Rain amounts and rain
rates have remained fairly low so all flood related products were
allowed to expire as of 10am EDT. Light rain will continue over the
area this morning along of the I-75 corridor and north of I-64.
Current radar imagery shows the northern part of the band pivoting
to the southwest with light rain showers. Other than that we have a
few isolated areas of light rain and drizzle. The overall forecast
remains on track. If we could get some clearing there could be a few
embedded thunderstorms. The other thing to note is the potential for
cold air funnels. Given that the upper low has opened up and we
don't have the shear or looping hodographs I feel the overall
likelihood is extremely low but not completely zero. No additional
updates to the grids or the forecast expected at this time.
Issued at 757 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Current KLVX radar loop shows a distinct deformation band just west
and along the I-75 corridor. Over the last two to three hours where
this band has been most persistent, in Owen Co. KY per the KY
Mesonet, has received over an inch and a quarter of precipitation.
Will continue to monitor this area where we currently have Flood
Warnings/Advisories for Woodford, Scott, and Franklin Counties and
update as needed. This band may persist for a couple more hours as
sfc low currently centered over the Bluegrass and northern KY slowly
works eastward this morning. Went ahead and increased POPs over the
areas where the banding has set up this morning. The rest of the
forecast looks good for now but will continue to monitor and update
later this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The stacked low pressure system that has been bringing rounds of
precipitation to southern Indiana and central Kentucky is currently
centered over the northwestern half of the CWA, and before the sun
sets later this evening, it will make it to the Atlantic Coast.
Convective showers and thunderstorms have been scattered in nature.
Some areas, including Orange and Dubois Counties in Indiana, have
received 3 to 4+ inches while farther east, through the Bluegrass
and Lake Cumberland regions, totals have been as low as 0.1-0.2
inches in some places, but as the system moves to the east so will
the totals. With weak deep layer shear and only moderate
instability, we haven't seen much in the way of severe weather, but
in some areas, mainly around the low, we have seen cells training
towards the center of the low which has caused isolated minor water
ponding and drainage issues. This trend will continue today as
scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms move east
through the Lower Ohio Valley in a counterclockwise motion around
the low.
Later this morning, we will likely see a break in the precipitation
before convection begins to increase with scattered showers and
storms on the backside of the circulation early this afternoon.
Coverage is expected to become more widespread during this time.
Overall rainfall totals aren't expected to be too high across the
CWA, but given the nature of convection and the possibility of
training or cells sitting nearly stationary over areas, there
remains the risk of isolated minor flooding. Generally speaking,
rainfall totals are expected to be higher over the eastern half of
the CWA with lower amounts tapering to the west.
Highs today will likely only hit the low to mid 70s given all the
rain and cloud cover, and even though winds will be light, between 5-
10 mph, they will be variable as they follow the same general
counterclockwise direction as the low moves east through the CWA.
Tonight, rain will slowly taper off as the system moves farther to
the east, and as upper ridging and surface high pressure, extending
south from Canada, moves into the region, skies will start to clear.
The best chances for clear will be over southern Indiana. With near
calm winds and some remaining sky cover, lows are expected to only
fall into the mid to upper 50s. Far southern Kentucky could hold
onto a 60 or two.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Shortwave ridging on Thursday should provide a break from the waves
of showers and storms, with temperatures peaking around 80 degrees.
However, that break will be brief. A southern stream vort max is
expected to eject from the Rio Grande on Thursday to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys by Saturday. A surface low will drift slowly from
the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley during this time as well. With plenty
of moisture available, widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system Friday into
Saturday. High precipitable water values, deep warm cloud depths,
weak shear, and a thin positive area on soundings suggest locally
heavy downpours will be the main threat with this activity. Though
general QPF amounts are in the 1-2" range for the long term, results
will vary widely from one spot to the next due to the convective
nature of the rainfall. As for severe storms, they can't be entirely
ruled out, but the best chances should be from the southern Plains
through the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast where
instability and shear values will be more supportive.
After a possible hiatus in the rain for the second half of the
weekend, chances increase again early next week as additional
disturbances move east from a western upper trough...though
confidence is low this far out in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The center of the low pressure system is currently near Louisville.
Observations which have been bouncing from VFR to IFR levels over
short distances are now showing more low level stratus wrapping
around the low and filling in towards the center which happens to be
near SDF. SDF could remain mostly VFR for a couple more hours before
going solidly into MVFR levels. IFR levels will be possible for a
short time, but it's not expected to last too long. The other sites
are still expected to spend more time under IFR ceilings. Things are
expected to begin improving this afternoon with VFR ceilings
returning this evening, but given how optimistic ceilings have been
in places overnight, wouldn't be surprised if this happened earlier.
Rain showers/storms have spent some time over SDF and LEX this
morning. Both sites should see some of a break later this morning
before scattered showers and thunderstorms begin developing again
this afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 15, 10:54 AM EDT---------------
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