JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 11:47 PM EDT658
FXUS63 KJKL 150347
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1147 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through
Wednesday. After a lull on Thursday, shower and thunderstorm
chances return to close out the week.
- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through the work week but with a cool down on Wednesday owing to
the showers around.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
PoP forecast looks good so left those as-is. Shortwave disturbance
is moving across the forecast area the next several hours so
additional shower and weak thunderstorm development can be
expected, but instability is generally on the downswing. This
resulted in forecast changes being just cosmetic, with wording
refreshed to reflect the timing just before midnight.
UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
An area of showers and thunderstorms impacting far eastern parts
of the forecast area will continue to move north and east into
northeast Kentucky, southern Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia
over the next few hours. Meanwhile, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are beginning to move northeast into far
southwestern parts of the forecast area, and this activity will
gradually overspread our forecast area through the late evening
and overnight.
Meanwhile, fog has begun to develop across the area in the wake of
the first round of showers and thunderstorms, and some of this fog
is locally dense. Will thus monitor trends and be ready to issue
an SPS if needed. However, suspect that fog will begin to
dissipate as clouds and precipitation move into the region.
The mid-evening update removes mention of strong thunderstorms
this evening. Additionally, hourly forecast temperatures for the
current period were lowered to match current trends, and then
blended into the forecast for the remainder of the overnight
period.
UPDATE Issued at 702 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
Updated PoPs based on latest observed trends. Heavier showers and
storms have remained a bit more west in the western and central
Kentucky and Tennessee than models had progged. Will continue to
monitor these trends through the evening and adjust PoPs as
needed. Also blended in the current cooler hourly temperatures to
the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
The afternoon surface analysis reveals a slow moving low pressure
is meandering eastward near the apex of western Kentucky,
southeast Missouri, and northwest Tennessee. Meanwhile, aloft an
upper low is noted on water vapor across the heart of Missouri,
with a shortwave noted toward the base of this trough in western
Tennessee. This lobe of vorticity and shortwave will aid in
bringing another shot of showers and thunderstorms into the area
late this afternoon and evening. We have seen some clearing in
West and Middle Tennessee and western Kentucky this afternoon and
storms have developed in these areas. Some of those could be
strong to severe given the better instability has been able to
build in those areas. The question we have for severe potential
here in eastern Kentucky is timing and cloud cover. Given this
thinking the overall probabilities are quite low given MLCAPE of
the latest mesoanalysis only shows around 500 J/kg and less than
30 knots of effective shear making it in by 00Z. However, this
will have to be watched as the guidance including ensemble data
have this shortwave pushing northeast through the evening. The
remainder of the night it would seem the CAMs show a lull in
showers and thunderstorms toward the 06Z timeframe.
There is good agreement that the previously mentioned upper low
finally works across eastern Kentucky tomorrow. The energy from
this will likely lead to another period of showers and
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon once a little more
instability builds, with MUCAPE values perhaps peaking around
1000-1500 J/kg. However, shear will be quite weak leading to
little if any storm organization. Afternoon highs will remain in
the low 70s for most locations given the potential for rain and
cloud cover much of the day. This upper level low finally pushes
east Wednesday night, and the heights begin to rise in the wake,
as a shortwave ridges pushes east. Some of the HREF probs suggest
the potential for for low clouds to build through the night
leading to a combination of fog and/or stratus potential.
Therefore little if any ridge/valley temperature splits are
expected at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
The large scale upper level pattern in the extended will feature a
trough exiting the mid-Atlantic region into the west central
Atlantic Ocean, weak ridging in place over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys extending southward into the central and northern Gulf of
Mexico, and weak troughs moving through the central Great Plains
and Four Corners regions to begin the period. We should start off
mostly dry on Thursday, but may see a few showers and storms
lingering across our eastern counties, on the backside of a
departing trough. The ridge is expected to be weak, and will only
influence our weather during the day on Thursday, before the
troughs to our west move in and displace it. We should see another
solid round of showers and storms affecting eastern Kentucky
Thursday evening through Monday, as series of troughs move across
the eastern half of the CONUS. The first trough will be the
weakest of the bunch and will isolated to scattered showers and
storms to the area Thursday night into Friday. A second much
stronger system will move through the area Friday night through
Saturday, and will bring widespread showers and storms to the
area. A couple of other decent systems will work their way
eastward across the area Saturday through Monday, and will bring
more rounds of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky. All in all,
the extended looks to be quite active.
Temperatures will be generally above normal, with the warmest days
seeing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Nightly lows will only
fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are no weather
concerns in the extended to speak of. Any thunderstorms we
experience could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
cloud to ground lighting, but there is no severe weather
anticipated at this time. A combination of the GFS, GFE Ensembles,
and ECMWF models were used to create the extended portion of the
forecast this time around.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024
Showers will exit northeast from KSJS and KSYM by around 01z this
evening, with a relative lull with only isolated activity likely at
all TAF sites until later this evening or overnight tonight, when
another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area.
Any breaks in cloud cover and precipitation will result in fog
formation, especially after 06z and before 13z. Thus, expect a mix
of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions through Wednesday morning or
early afternoon, with MVFR conditions more likely to prevail
between 04z until around 18z Wednesday when VFR conditions should
start to prevail outside of showers and storms. Winds will
largely remain light through the period, through any stronger
storm near TAF sites could produce a brief period of gusty and
erratic winds. A more persistent northwest wind of 5 to 10 kts is
expected Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 11:47 PM EDT---------------
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