CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 1:21 PM EDT654
FXUS61 KCLE 121721
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level trough will exit to the east today, allowing
surface high pressure to build into the region for the next few
days. The next system will arrive Friday and impact the local
area into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The clouds and showers associated with cold advection over Lake
Erie has diminished, as flow backs across far NE OH and NW PA.
Winds are veering again further west, but diurnal cumulus is
starting to form across the region, as temperatures enter the
mid to upper 70s. Have clouds increasing through the afternoon
and then have kept some iso PoPs in Northwest Ohio for this
evening with some minor convergence in the region.
Previous Discussion...
Upper trough will finally push east of the area today, but there may
be just enough lingering forcing aloft to support scattered showers
across eastern Erie/Crawford counties in PA. Otherwise, expect dry
weather at most locations for the majority of today as a ridge
builds east into the area. There may be a few showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm across NW OH late this afternoon into this
evening as a shortwave advances east towards the area, but do not
anticipate a washout this evening. PoPs are confined to slight
chance (~20%). A few high resolution guidance members are hinting at
some isolated showers through the overnight, but would like to see a
little bit more consistency in placement and a bit higher coverage
before introducing PoPs into the forecast.
The aforementioned shortwave will drop southeast into the CWA
Tuesday and there will be sufficient moisture and lift for at
least a small chance of scattered showers and maybe isolated
thunderstorms south of the lake breeze, mainly during peak
diurnal instability Tuesday afternoon. With that being said,
several CAMs maintain dry weather for most of the CWA with only
very isolated showers, so capped PoPs at slight chance for the
time being. If showers/thunderstorms develop, they will begin to
dissipate as instability wanes early Tuesday evening.
Temperatures begin to moderate through the near term period with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s expected today. Tonight's lows
will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, although locations in
interior NE OH and NW PA will likely dip into the cooler low to mid
50s. Highs will be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and pleasantly cool weather will continue through midweek
followed by warmer and increasingly humid conditions with increased
rain chances to end the week.
Mid/upper longwave troughing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night
and Wednesday gradually progresses east Wednesday night through
Thursday night as a mid/upper shortwave trough progresses from the
Intermountain West into the Upper Midwest. A large dome of surface
high pressure will remain centered over the central Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place, but this high will gradually slide into New
England by Thursday night, and the developing return flow and
resultant warm air advection combined with rising heights aloft will
bring the warmer and more humid air into the region at that time.
Temperatures Thursday will be notably warmer, but it will take until
Thursday night for the higher dew points to return. In terms of
precipitation, as the aforementioned shortwave moves into the Upper
Midwest Thursday night, phasing with northern stream energy dropping
down from the vicinity of James Bay will support a deepening surface
low over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent ahead of a northward retreating warm front
combined with weak elevated instability will start to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area Thursday night, so
have chance PoPs, especially west of I-71.
Highs in the low/mid 80s Wednesday will warm into the mid/upper 80s
Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will range from the mid
50s to low 60s, with low to mid 60s Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The end of the week and weekend will be unsettled as the surface low
over the Upper Midwest looks to become vertically stacked beneath
the parent mid-level low by Friday then gradually progress across
the Great Lakes through Sunday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance
differ with regards to how "closed off" this system becomes which
leads to timing differences, but the overall theme is that an
associated cold front will cross the region by Saturday followed by
a longwave trough deepening across the Great Lakes through the
weekend. With this in mind, stayed with NBM PoPs showing the
greatest shower/thunderstorm chances Friday into Saturday as the
cold front slowly crosses the region and interacts with a very moist
and moderately unstable warm sector, with chances for showers/storms
continuing Sunday with the wraparound moisture and deepening trough
aloft. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday into Saturday, but
again, the overall timing and evolution of the system will become
more certain in the coming days.
Highs in the low/mid 80s Friday will cool into the upper 70s/low 80s
Saturday and the 75 to 80 degree range Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Any non-VFR with cold advection across Lake Erie has moved out
of the region. However, diurnal cumulus across the area is
starting to take over and some low VFR ceilings are already
starting to occur at some of the terminals. Have this trend
continuing to most of the terminals over the next several hours.
The chances of MVFR are non-zero, but very low, as moisture
seems best present in the 3-5 kft layer. Some cumulus in NW OH
could get perky with some convergence and some isolated showers
are possible. In the end, will omit any rain mention in the TAFs
but a shower at KTOL and KFDY is possible. Winds will back
tonight into Tuesday and allow for clouds to become more
scattered but in the low VFR range.
Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible Tuesday. Non-VFR possible with showers
and thunderstorms Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to diminish early this morning as high
pressure builds across the central and southern Great Lakes. NW
winds of 10-15 knots this morning will become variable in direction
this afternoon through Tuesday with speeds of generally 5-10 knots.
ESE winds of 5-10 knots will then develop Tuesday night becoming NE
Wednesday afternoon before turning ESE again Wednesday night. ENE
winds of 10-15 knots are then expected Thursday becoming SE Thursday
night and Friday as the high departs and a warm front approaches the
lake.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 1:21 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
