CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 2:00 AM EDT541
FXUS61 KCLE 120600
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will drop southeast across the region tonight before
high pressure builds in from the southwest Monday and Monday
night. Low pressure approaches towards the end of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:08 PM EDT Update...
Most of forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. Only change was to increase coverage of lake-
enhanced/effect showers and thunderstorms and QPF of at least
0.01" over and generally east-southeast of central and eastern
Lake Erie through the predawn hours of Monday morning based on
latest trends in obs/higher-res forecast model guidance, synoptic
scale low-level moisture remaining sufficient, lake-induced CAPE
remaining moderate to strong, and lake-induced equilibrium levels
remaining near 30kft AGL over ~24C Lake Erie. Another shortwave
disturbance and attendant surface trough axis are expected to sweep
SE'ward across the lake very late this evening through the wee hours
of Monday morning, which is when coverage of convection should be
greatest over/generally southeast of Lake Erie, but convection
coverage should remain isolated. Ahead of the shortwave trough axis,
WNW'erly to NW'erly mean low-level flow and WNW'erly mid-level flow
are expected. Behind the shortwave trough axis, mean flow becomes
NW'erly in the low-level and mid-level portions of the atmospheric
column, respectively. Please see discussion below for further
details.
Previous Discussion...
A longwave trough is digging into the northeast tonight into
Monday. One last little embedded upper- level shortwave trough
and associated surface reflection will drop southeast across
Lake Erie and adjacent northeast OH and northwest PA overnight
tonight. The longwave trough will begin shifting east by Monday
night, allowing surface high pressure to build in from the
southwest. As this happens, a flat shortwave (with no surface
reflection) will enter the region from the west Monday night.
A mainly dry near term forecast period is expected. Daytime
heating beneath the trough aloft is allowing scattered showers
and storms from southern Ontario across Lake Erie into far
northeast OH and northwest PA this afternoon. This activity
should shift east-southeast and dissipate towards sunset this
evening with diurnal cumulus elsewhere also dissipating with
sunset. However, as Lake Erie becomes the primary heat and
moisture source overnight some lake effect showers will remain
possible from far northeast OH into northwest PA, especially as
the final shortwave and surface trough drop through. Outside of
a few lingering showers in northwest PA we should be dry on
Monday. Did introduce a slight chance (20%) chance of showers
Monday night ahead of the next shortwave. While surface high
pressure will be dominant, modest lift, moisture, and
instability (especially near Lake Erie overnight) may contribute
to a few showers as several hi-res models indicate.
Lows tonight will once again settle into the 50s and lower 60s.
Highs on Monday will tick up a bit, generally into the upper 70s
and lower 80s, with low to mid 70s in PA. Lows Monday night will
generally range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, slightly milder
than tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Base of the upper trough will be to the east of the local area by
the start of the short term as an upper ridge begins to build over
the Mississippi Valley. Upper shortwave moving along the upper trough
may allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday
afternoon and evening before the high builds in for Wednesday.
Broad northwesterly flow will keep temperatures a few degrees below
normal with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s on
Tuesday and Tuesday night respectively. High temperatures approach
normal values Wednesday as they rise into the lower 80s with
overnight lows Wednesday night settling in the upper 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
More active period comes later this week and into the weekend as an
upper low over the Upper Midwest glides east into the Great Lakes
region. At the surface, low pressure will lift a warm front east
across the Ohio Valley Friday before swinging a cold front on
Saturday. Still some uncertainty on timing but shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday night into the weekend.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs in the low/mid 80s and
overnight lows in the low 60s. Humidity returns by the end of the
week as dew points rise into the mid/upper 60s for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. Widely scattered lake-
enhanced showers will continue across NE OH and NW PA through
tonight with the best rain chances at KYNG for the first couple
hours of the TAF period and at KERI through mid-morning. Surface
high pressure will build in from the west throughout the day
today, which will allow any lingering showers to taper off
throughout the morning. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds
will likely increase this afternoon into tonight as a shortwave
lifts into the region and can't rule out a few showers at KTOL
and KFDY (although chances are too low in include in the TAF at
this point) towards the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the west and under 10 knots tonight before
becoming northwesterly and increasing to 6 to 12 knots this
afternoon. Light and variable winds will develop near or shortly
after 00Z tonight.
Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible Tuesday. Non-VFR possible with showers
and thunderstorms Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for Avon Point OH
to Ripley NY (Cuyahoga Co. to Erie Co. PA) remains in effect through
early Monday morning. Surface troughing has allowed for west to
northwest winds to remain elevated between 15-20 knots with wave
heights of 3-6 feet. Surface trough exits Monday morning as surface
high pressure builds over the lake and will bring quieter marine
conditions by late Monday. High pressure remains over the region
through mid-week with no marine headlines anticipated through
mid-week.
Given the seasonably-cool airmass across the region, the waterspout
potential will likely remain over the lake into Monday
afternoon.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 2:00 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
