JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 9:09 AM EDT625
FXUS63 KJKL 111309
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
909 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below average temperatures and dry weather will persist into
early next week.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase Wednesday
through Friday of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
Clouds are more prevalent than was forecast and this update raises
sky cover until the current area of clouds shifts southeast
during the late morning and early afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 653 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
Mid- and high-level clouds will stream across eastern Kentucky
this morning. Updated Sky grid forecasts accordingly especially
for the remainder of the morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
A cool and dry air mass remains in place through Monday afternoon
as surface high pressure remains in control of the weather. An
upper trough over the eastern US will move to the Mid-Atlantic
coastline, with a trailing shortwave beginning to approach from
the west-northwest but not quite reaching here by early Monday
evening. Temperatures will feel more like September than August,
with highs near 80 degrees today and Monday and lows tonight in
the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
The period begins with a surface high pressure but aloft, a
shortwave perturbation is moving out of the Upper Midwest. Through
the overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, this impulse will
approach the area and bring isolated chances of showers and
thunderstorms to areas mainly along the Kentucky/Tennessee state
line.
The remainder of the period looks to usher a more active pattern
into the region. A dome of high pressure is forecast to develop and
park itself over much of the southern CONUS. The dome of high
pressure will be strong enough to keep the main flow riding along
the northern fringe of the forecast 594 decameter high pressure
dome. Within the mean flow, multiple shortwave perturbation are
forecast to move through the flow and provide multiple opportunities
for ridge-riding MCS activity through the end of the forecast
period. Depending where these impulse track within the main flow
will dictate where these MCSs will track.
Overall, the period starts with a return to more seasonal
temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the mid-80s with overnight
lows in the low to mid-60s. Increasing chances of showers and storms
will build in for the middle of next week and persist through the
end of the period as a possible ridge-riding MCS pattern sets up.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mid- and
high-level clouds passing across the area from time to time. Valley
fog this morning and Monday morning is expected to remain
confined to the deeper sheltered valleys away from the TAF sites.
Winds will generally average less than 5 kts from the northwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 11, 9:09 AM EDT---------------
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