IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 5:45 AM EDT005
FXUS63 KIWX 090945
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry conditions are expected through early next week, with
variable cloud cover and high temperatures in the 70s and low
80s. Lows will be in the 50s.
-There will be dangerous swimming conditions at Lake Michigan
beaches through late Saturday with life-threatening waves and
currents expected. Those visiting the beaches should plan to
stay out of the water.
-There are low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
from mid to late next week. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Predominantly dry forecast through next Wednesday with variable
cloud cover and highs in the 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the
50s. High pressure builds in at the surface today behind a cold
front, with an upper level low situated over northern Ontario and
Lake Superior. Flow aloft over the IWX CWA remains fairly zonal
through Saturday night as the low weakens and begins to meander
slightly eastward. The base of the trough moves through Saturday
night into Sunday night before exiting the area all together. Models
disagree on what happens beyond that, but most of the guidance keeps
us dry through at least the weekend.
Otherwise, gusty northwest winds behind the cold front this morning
(buoys and nearshore observations around 25-30 mph) will diminish to
around 10 to 20 mph through the day. Waves approaching from the WNW
will build to around 3-6 feet with wave periods around 6 seconds,
which will favor development of life-threatening rip and structural
currents. A high swim risk and beach hazards statement are in effect
for both Berrien/La Porte Counties today into Saturday (afternoon
for La Porte, IN and evening for Berrien, MI). A small craft
advisory is in effect through Saturday afternoon/evening as well.
Model guidance is conflicted from Monday onward in regards to
precipitation chances as models struggle to resolve the
strength/timing of several shortwaves that cross the Great Lakes
next week. With the first wave (Monday or Tuesday), the GFS is more
progressive and weaker with the wave (Mon-Mon night), while the
ECMWF is slower and deeper, thus slightly later in timing (Tue-Tue
night). Another wave moves through either Thu/Fri, with the larger-
scale pattern likely being influenced by the next tropical wave.
Have left consensus low-chances for showers/storms Thu/Fri given
uncertainties, but left the start of next week (Mon-Wed) dry for
now.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024
Subsidence/high pressure continues to build through the period
with dry conditions throughout the column supporting just SCT
4-5 kft stratocu. Tight gradient and decent mixing will yield a
few gusts to 25 kts this afternoon, particularly at KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for MIZ177-
277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 5:45 AM EDT---------------
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