CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 9:04 PM EDT483
FXUS61 KCLE 110104
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
904 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough with a few weak surface troughs rotating
around it will influence our weather through Sunday night. High
pressure builds in to start the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
9:03 PM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
Cooler than normal conditions with refreshingly pleasant
humidity levels will continue through the rest of the weekend as
an upper level trough continues digging into the Northeast. The
airmass is relatively dry so while the chilly air aloft will
contribute to diurnal cumulus once again on Sunday, have a dry
forecast outside of parts of northeast OH and northwest PA
through the weekend. Farther northeast, moisture and instability
contributed by Lake Erie amid westerly flow will lead to more
clouds and likely some rain showers at times, especially when
troughs move across the lake and add a bit of large-scale lift.
Trough passages are evident late this evening, Sunday morning,
and overnight Sunday night, with somewhat higher POPs downwind
of the lake into far northeast OH and northwest PA in these
periods. Instability may be deep enough for a strike or two of
lightning on Sunday, especially across northwest PA, though for
the most part these will just be rain showers. As mentioned
above, have a generally dry forecast outside of locations east
of the lake. However, as the trough axis that pushes onshore
Sunday morning continues inland Sunday afternoon it may be just
enough to force a few showers across inland northeast OH.
Wind gusts to around 20 MPH this afternoon will slacken tonight.
Wind gusts of 20-25 MPH are likely again Sunday afternoon. Look for
lows tonight to fall into the 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Sunday will
not be far off from today in the 70s. Lows Sunday night will again
fall into the 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will keep seasonably cool temperatures in place to begin
the week. Surface troughing across Lake Erie will allow for lake
enhanced rain showers to linger through Monday afternoon. High
pressure builds overhead Monday into Tuesday leading to a mainly dry
forecast. Expect afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to low 60s
each night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge will support a mostly dry forecast to start the
long term period with temperatures near normal in the low 80s for
highs and low 60s for lows. Some uncertainty as we head into the
second half of the forecast period as the upper level pattern varies
across model solutions. Continued low-end chance PoPs beginning
Thursday and continuing into the start of the weekend as a system
approaches from the Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR expected through 00Z/Mon. Simultaneously, at the
surface, a trough lingers over/near the Great Lakes as a ridge
builds from the Lower MO Valley to the Upper OH Valley. Our
regional surface winds vary between SW'erly and WNW'erly around
5 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots or so are expected from
~15Z/Sun to ~00Z/Mon. Primarily dry weather is expected.
However, lake-effect/enhanced rain showers with periodic MVFR
are expected and a few lake-effect/enhanced thunderstorms are
possible over and generally east of Lake Erie, in far-NE OH and
NW PA, between ~02Z/Sun and 00Z/Mon.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible with periodic and isolated to scattered
lake-effect/enhanced showers and perhaps thunderstorms through
Monday. The showers and potential thunderstorms are expected to
remain confined to NE OH and NW PA, mainly northeast of KCLE and
north of KYNG.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine headlines remain in effect through the weekend for much of
the lake as west to northwest winds 15-23 knots persist through
early Monday morning under an upper trough. May need to extend the
eastern end of the marine headlines into early Monday morning as
northerly winds keep wave heights above small craft criteria. Weak
high pressure south of Lake Erie will give way to a period of
quieter marine conditions through mid-week.
Seasonably cooler airmass with relatively weak flow aloft will
increase the waterspout potential Sunday into Monday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ010.
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for OHZ011-012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 9:04 PM EDT---------------
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