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682 FXUS64 KMOB 060935AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL435 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024Now that Debbie has moved off the southeastern coastline, we willreturn to our regular scheduled excessive heat. We will remain onsquished between the remnants of Debby to our east and a rather impressive upper level ridge over the four corners region stretching into the lower Mississippi valley. Rather impressive subsidence on the western side of Debby coupled with dry northwesterly flow will drop PWATS below 1.5 inches the next two days which falls in the lower 25th percentile of PWATS for this time of the year. In short, its a really dry airmass for early August. As a result, dry conditions will persist through the forecast. Temperatures will be the talk of the week as high temperatures will near record highs for this time of the year. Drylow levels will allow for dewpoints and deep vertical mixing to occur during the afternoon. Slap on warming as Debby acts like a giant engine pumping out heat into the atmosphere and this will allow for temperatures to efficiently warm as most of the area approaches triple digits. Our record highs range around 100 and given the pattern we will likely flirt if not break some daily record highs this week. The question is how high can we get? Despite dewpoints mixing out, heat indices will remain near advisory criteria and as a result a heat advisory will continue today and likely be needed for Wednesday. Lastly, the swell from Debby has relaxed and as a result a low rip current risk expected the remainder of the forecast. BB/03&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024A deep layer northerly to northwesterly flow pattern is forecast to persist across our region on Thursday between Tropical Storm Debby that will be slowly meandering in the vicinity of SC and an upper level ridge of high pressure that will extend eastward across the southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Debby should finally lift northward across the Carolinas/Virginia by Friday courtesy of a deepening trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, while the upper level ridge meanwhile expands eastward over much of the Deep South. The end result for our forecast area will be a continuation of very hot temperatures and generally dry weather conditions through the latter part of the week. A slight enhancement of deep layer moisture could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over southeastern portions of our forecast area on Friday afternoon and we have maintained a slight chance of convection across locations generally along and east of an Andalusia, AL to Pensacola, FL line. Record heat otherwise looks probable over our area Thursday and Friday. The records at Mobile and Pensacola could be in jeopardy both days with high temperatures forecast to reach into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values could range between 106-112 degrees both days, so additional Heat Advisory issuances will likely become necessary.Mobile record highs:August 8 - 98 (last set in 1972) August 9 - 98 (last set in 2007)Pensacola record highs:August 8 - 98 (set in 2023)August 9 - 97 (set in 2023)Upper level troughing will continue to extend from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states this weekend while ridging aloft continues to stretch across the Deep South. A surface trough axis/frontal boundary will extend near coastal portions of our forecast area this weekend. Light northerly surface flow and a drier airmass will be present behind the boundary this weekend with dewpoints perhaps mixing out into at least the lower to mid 60s behind the trough/boundary both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight low temperatures may be slightly more pleasant in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees over interior areas Sunday and Monday mornings. Highs should otherwise range in the 90s Saturday through Monday. Rain chances should remain minimal through Monday, although there will be at least a slight chance of showers and storms near the coast each day. /21&&.MARINE...Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024Light to moderate northwesterly winds tonight become westerly to northwesterly for Tuesday through Thursday. A northerly to westerly flow follows for Friday and Saturday. BB/03&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 100 76 101 76 100 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 99 79 100 79 99 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 Destin 96 80 97 82 97 82 94 81 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 Evergreen 99 73 100 73 100 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 100 73 102 71 99 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 98 74 99 73 98 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Crestview 99 74 100 75 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-261>266.FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>204-206.MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
