IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:12 PM EDT799
FXUS63 KIND 062312
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid today
- Isolated thunderstorms late today into this evening
- Cooler and less humid Wednesday
- Much cooler and low humidly this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
As of this afternoon, central Indiana is sitting under mostly clear
skies with warm southwesterly flow and mostly clear skies. This will
soon change as the frontal boundary, currently marked by stratus
clouds from Kansas to the eastern Great Lakes, traverses over the
region through the rest of the day. Associated storms over northern
Indiana are starting to strengthen some with more cells popping up
further SW along the front. At this time there is still limited
convection with the line but as instability increases and an
interaction with the more moist airmass occurs, should see an
increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage. This coverage
should be limited to scattered storms but stronger cells could
very well produce damaging winds thanks in part to DCAPE values
over 1000 J/kg going into the evening. Best chances for
precipitation will be after 4 to 5 PM starting in our NW and
should move out to the SE by the early Wednesday morning hours.
Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions will settle across the
region. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s while highs
tomorrow will max out from the upper 70s and low 80s. While it
appears unlikely, there is a non-zero chance for small, isolated
showers tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the passing system.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Initially, temperatures will fall back towards seasonal behind a
synoptic scale front for the middle of the week. However, the more
significant pattern change will arrive late week. The synoptic-
scale pattern shift will lead to cooler temperatures as a Canadian
continental air mass pushes in from the NW.
You can thank the change in temperatures to the arrival of Tropical
Storm Debby over the SE CONUS. This warm core low will bottle up the
overall pattern, causing a deep low over the northern Great Lakes to
stall, and occlude. In return, the ridge over the Great Plains will
wain, allow a more efficient advection of cold air into the Ohio
Valley. By Saturday, statistical ensemble guidance shows a greater
than 80% change for highs below 80 degrees on Saturday with 20-25
percentiles in the low 70s. Overnight lows will also take a dip with
the drop in dew points, with Saturday night lows potentially in the
mid 50s.
This is a dry synoptic pattern with little/no precipitation in our
region, as richer moisture train remains southeast of us and more
significant large scale ascent is absent.
The cool/dry pattern appears to last into the Day 8-14 day period,
with a signal for warming as western/central ridging build again
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Impacts:
- Isolated/scattered thunderstorms through 03z
- Wind shift to 350-020 deg with the front this evening followed by
MVFR and IFR stratus overnight
Discussion:
Latest satellite and radar imagery shows Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across portions of Central Indiana along an
approaching cold front. These storms are relatively weak an are
expected to remain below severe limits. VCSH has been added to the
KIND TAF with the best chance of a shower or storm through around
01z.
Winds will quickly shift from SW to NW behind the front over the
next several hours then shift again to the NE overnight with winds
remaining elevated in the 5-10kt range overnight.
MVFR to IFR stratus is being reported behind this front and clearly
seen on satellite imagery. Expect this area of low clouds to quickly
build in from NW to SE in the 01-05z timeframe. Due to these low
clouds coming in during the overnight hours, they may persist
through around sunrise if moisture becomes trapped near the surface
under a nocturnal boundary layer inversion.
Expect ceilings to slowly lift during the morning hours on Wednesday
becoming VFR by the afternoon. Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon may
gust upwards of 15 to 20 kts at times.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:12 PM EDT---------------
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