PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 2:22 AM CDT202
FXUS63 KPAH 060722
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One last hot and humid day today with heat index readings of 100
to 105.
- Continued dry pattern through the weekend along with much
cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Upper level ridging centered over the southwest U.S. will influence
our weather for one more day today as heights temporarily rise and
850mb temps jump up to 21-22C. A frontal boundary will sink south
through the area this evening bringing an end to our recent hot
spell. Ahead of the boundary some pooling of moisture is possible.
However, this may be confined to just our far northwest counties
this afternoon and then across more of the region as we head into
the evening. Mixing should help dewpoints mix down into the 68-71
range during peak heating. So despite the slightly warmer air temps
of 94-98, think that most areas should stay just below Heat Advisory
threshold. Issued an SPS for widespread heat index values of 100 to
105. A few CAMs spit out some isolated light showers this evening
along the boundary. Can't rule this out, but kept PoPs in the silent
range for now.
Temperatures will be much cooler across the region on Wednesday,
aided even more so by a good amount of cloud cover. Think that the
clouds should slowly erode through the afternoon, but temperatures
will only peak in the low to mid 80s. Also looks to be a decent
northerly breeze with some gusts up around 15 mph possible.
Thursday and Friday look to be a bit warmer, with highs peaking in
the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels remain more comfortable with
dewpoints in the 60s though. Thereafter, troughing digs further
across the Ohio Valley this weekend. 850mb temps drop below 15C and
possibly as low as 10-12C across the area. The ECMWF has trended
cooler to match up with the GFS/Canadian leading to higher
confidence that highs will only be in the lower half of the 80s with
lows dropping into the upper 50s to around 60. Dewpoints in the 50s
will make it feel even nicer, providing an early taste of Fall!
Guidance is hinting at our first real precipitation chance in 10
days occurring next Monday. This is associated with some mid-level
energy moving through the area. Doesn't look like anything of much
significance, but any QPF will be appreciated by then given the long
dry spell.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Expect patchy fog again tonight with potential for flight
restrictions toward morning. It should burn off quickly in the
morning, then predominant Visual Flight Rules are anticipated to
prevail with a FEW-SCT diurnal bases firing in the 4-6K FT AGL
range ahead of an approaching dry cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...99
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 2:22 AM CDT---------------
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