LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 6:03 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...012
FXUS63 KLMK 072203
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
603 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A few spotty showers and storms possible this afternoon in the
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower
humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
A weak sfc cold front is situated across eastern Kentucky this
afternoon. While our sfc winds have turned to a N-NW flow, our
dewpoints remain quite muggy behind the front. Some isolated to
scattered showers are popping across our east and near an area of
deep moisture convergence. For the rest of this afternoon, most will
stay dry, but an isolated shower/storm chance will remain possible
across the Bluegrass and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
Weak flow in the column is resulting in virtually no shear, and also
slow storm motions. Partial clearing of the cloud deck is allowing
for some sfc heating, with temps in the upper 80s in the east. Along
with a humid airmass, we are able to realize some marginal
instability. The slow storm motions could result in a few very
localized higher rainfall areas, as the 12z HREF guidance suggests.
By sunset, loss of daytime heating will help diminish precip
activity. Dry and partly cloudy expected overnight, with temps in
the 60s.
We'll start out dry again tomorrow, though may have some patchy fog
in some areas for the morning. The remnants of Debbie will continue
to slowly meander inland over the Carolinas. The frontal boundary
will get held up across eastern Kentucky tomorrow as Debbie blocks
the front from any eastward progression. Similar to today, most of
the region will remain dry, but we could see some isolated pop-ups
develop in the afternoon in the I-75 corridor. Weak shear and
marginal instability will keep showers and storms isolated and
rather tame tomorrow. Will keep PoPs generally in the 20% range for
tomorrow. Temps will range from the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Thursday night through Monday upper ridging will dominate the
southern half of the United States as an upper trough swings across
southeast Canada. We could see a few sprinkles east of Interstate 65
Thursday night into Friday morning as a dissipating cold front comes
in from the northwest and TC Debby advances from North Carolina to
Virginia. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure sliding from the Plains
to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will help to keep the region dry
during the period. The weekend looks particularly nice with lots of
sunshine and afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The
Canadian air mass will bring in much lower humidity...soundings
suggest dew points may mix down into the lower 50s Saturday
afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday the upper flow overhead will become more
northwesterly as ridging builds over the southern Plains. This
raises the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms
advancing from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley. However, at this time
sounding progs and CSU MLPPs indicate that the chances of severe
storms are low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
Cloud deck over the area has become mainly scattered this evening
with the exception for HNB where it has continued to bounce in and
out of MVFR due to the scattered. Current satellite imagery loop
shows clouds continue to break and thin out as we head into the
evening hours and overnight. Forecast calls for VFR flight
categories through the overnight into tomorrow. The only thing we
will be watching are winds out of the north to north-northeast
increasing during the day tomorrow to around 10kts and clouds
building in from the east for LEX/RGA. There is also a very low
chance of a shower/storm forming tomorrow afternoon for LEX/RGA but
not high enough to mention in the current forecast.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 6:03 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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