CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 10:07 AM EDT419
FXUS61 KCLE 071407
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger through tonight. A weak cold front will
move east on Friday. Remnants of Hurricane Debby will track to the
east of the area on Friday, arriving in New England on Saturday.
High pressure will return for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10:07 AM EDT Update...
Most of the near-term forecast remains valid per latest trends
in obs and model guidance. However, based on latest consensus of
forecast model guidance, a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and early evening, especially between 2
PM and 8 PM EDT, from roughly Trumbull County to Knox County and
points toward the southeast, as a sufficiently-moist boundary
layer undergoes weak destabilization via daytime heating. POP's
and QPF were updated accordingly. Low-level convergence along a
surface trough axis extending from Tropical Storm Debby may
release weak, yet sufficient boundary layer instability for the
development of isolated convection in the aforementioned area.
No severe storms are expected, due in part to limited MUCAPE.
Please see discussion below for further details.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure has built south across the area which will allow for a
period of relief after yesterday's storms. Mostly cloudy skies today
will allow for cooler temperatures as highs are expected to climb
into the mid to upper 70s. Breezy conditions are expected from the
northeast for areas immediately along the lakeshore and along the
I75 corridor with winds from the northeast sustained at 15-20 mph,
gusting up to 30 mph at times. Near sunset this evening, all winds
should weaken to 5-10 mph. Depending how quickly these winds weaken,
there is a potential for some patchy fog Thursday morning, but with
low confidence did not include it with this update, but will
continue to monitor. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid
60s. On Thursday, there may be a few peaks of sunshine early on, but
overcast skies will build in from the southeast as remnants of
Hurricane Debby move up the East Coast. Not expecting much, if any,
impact from Debby during this period, although a few rain showers
cannot be ruled out along the eastern tier of the CWA. This set up
will also result in the return of southerly flow across the area and
allow for increased WAA and temperatures again rising into the low
to mid 80s for the Ohio portion of the CWA, but a bit cooler only
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s across northwest
Pennsylvania.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of Hurricane Debby will move north along the spine of the
Appalachians, likely impacting areas along and east of I-71 through
the day on Friday. Overall impact should remain marginal across the
area as the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain east. WPC has
highlighted portion of Northwest Pennsylvania in a Day 3 Marginal
ERO to highlight this potential. Models are pretty consistent with a
more dominant upper level trough over the western Great Lakes
keeping these remnants closer to the East Coast, but if there is any
shift in the placement of this synoptic trough, the remnants may
shift slightly further west. Will continue to monitor for that
potential. In addition, with broad upper level support from this
trough over the western Great Lakes, there is a potential for
thunderstorms to develop in the highlighted area above, but with
limited mesoscale forcing expected due to a predominantly CAA
regime, not expecting any widespread strong to severe storms. By
Friday night, the entire area should dry out briefly as the remnants
push further northeast into the New England region. In its wake, a
trough will linger over the area, allowing for a northwest flow of
much cooler air (850mb temps of 6-7C) to move across Lake Erie. By
Saturday afternoon, this set up will begin to develop lake effect
rain showers that will impact the typical snowbelt region through
Saturday night.
High temperatures on Friday will climb into the upper 70s, possibly
touching 80 in some places, before a widespread cool down occurs on
Saturday with highs only climbing into the low to mid 70s. Overnight
lows on Thursday night will be the mildest with temperatures only
dropping into the mid to upper 60s. For Friday and Saturday night,
much cooler temperatures arrive with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned surface trough is expected to linger into next
Monday, keeping around the potential for lake enhanced rain showers
on Sunday and the first half of Monday. Given the very strong
temperature gradient (nearly 19C) between the lake temperatures and
850mb, enhanced lake enhanced instability could lead to a few
rumbles of thunder Sunday afternoon, but would not anticipate any
other notable impacts from these showers. By Monday night, high
pressure finally returns to the area and should allow for a hiatus
in all precipitation across the area through at least midweek. Highs
through the entire period should generally remain in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows dropping into the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area this
morning as low stratus/patchy fog continue to linger across
most terminals. Lowest visibilities and ceilings are confined to
the terminals inland from the lakeshore, with areas around
Akron-Canton dropping to LIFR with visibilities as low as 1/2SM
at times. Elsewhere there is a mix or IFR and MVFR ceilings
impacting terminals. These lower ceilings will gradually improve
today to be VFR by afternoon/early evening and persist at most
terminals through the overnight hours. There is another
potential for fog/low stratus to develop across the southern
terminals, but with low confidence in the extent have opted to
only lower KCAK, KMFD,and KYNG to low end MVFR/high end IFR
conditions beginning near 08Z Thursday.
Winds across the area through this period will remain from the
northeast at 5-10 knots with the exception of stronger flow near
the lakeshore and across western terminals. For those terminals,
expect sustained winds from the northeast at 10-15 knots,
gusting up to 25 knots at times. Near sunset, all winds will
gradually weaken to become 5-10 knots.
Outlook....Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build south across the area today,
resulting in the continuation of a strong northeast flow across Lake
Erie. Winds will persist at 20-25 knots through at least midnight
tonight with waves expected to build to 5 to 8 feet in open waters
and 4 to 7 within the nearshore waters. This will also result in an
increased water level across the western basin of Lake Erie which
may result in localized lakeshore flooding. These conditions will
continue to be dangerous to small crafts and beach-goers, so a Small
Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement for High Risk of rip
currents remains in effect today.
Winds tonight will gradually shift to southeast and weaken to 10-15
knots. This will allow for the largest waves to be isolated to the
northern lakeshore and allow for a break in hazardous marine
conditions. As remnants of Hurricane Debby move up the East Coast
Friday, winds will gradually shift to become northwesterly at 5-10
knots. Overnight on Friday, an increased pressure gradient due to
the remnant low will increase these northwest winds to 15-20 knots
and result in nearshore waves building to 3-5 feet. This trough will
linger through at least Sunday, presenting another period this
weekend for potential hazardous marine conditions. In addition, with
a relatively cold 850mb temperature moving across a very warm Lake
Erie, will have to continue to monitor for the potential of
waterspouts this weekend. For the start of next week, high pressure
returns and calm marine conditions should return.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Campbell
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 10:07 AM EDT---------------
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