LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:25 AM EDT288
FXUS63 KLMK 060525
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
125 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mainly dry weather through most of this week. Some patchy
morning fog.
* Hot today and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Very quiet evening across the Ohio Valley. Only potential concern is
patchy fog development towards daybreak, especially in the fog-prone
valleys across the area. Ongoing forecast has all of this handled
well. Tweaked grids to match obs, but otherwise no changes needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
Upper ridging holds over our region while a stronger belt of
westerlies stays displaced to the north, and Debby spins across the
SE CONUS. This will keep us hot, muggy, and dry through the short
term. The two main areas to focus on with this forecast will be
overnight fog potential once again, and heat/humidity during the
day.
Currently seeing upper 80s and low 90s readings across the area,
with another degree or two still possible this afternoon. Heat
indices are mostly peaking in the mid and upper 90s give dew points
a degree or two on either side of 70. Tonight, expect a similar fog
setup given mostly clear skies and calming winds. Will message
patchy fog wording, with perhaps some localized valley locations
seeing some dense coverage.
Tuesday brings rising heights and thicknesses which should allow for
max Ts a degree or two warmer than today. As a result, expecting
highs more solidly in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Peak heat
indices will likely top out in the upper 90s and low 100s given
similar dew points and temps a bit warmer. May go with a Special
Weather Statement along and west of I-65 for Tuesday's heat and
humidity, but don't expect any values high enough for a heat
headline.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
===== Tuesday Night - Wednesday =====
A mid-level shortwave will be swinging across the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday night, with an attendant weak cold front making it's way
into the lower Ohio Valley. We'll be lacking any meaningful moisture
overnight to support precip chances, but we should at least see an
increase in cloud cover from north to south by Wednesday morning.
We'll see our sfc winds sharply turn from a warm SW flow to a CAA NW
flow through the morning hours as the front slides through. The
boundary should be bisecting the forecast area by the afternoon,
which may result in a wide range in max temps for Wednesday. In the
post-front CAA region, sfc temps may be limited to the low 80s. East
of I-65, WAA ahead of the front will promote temps reaching the
upper 80s, and possibly even some locations close to 90 in our far
eastern counties. As the front slides to the east through the
afternoon, it will interact with slightly higher moisture that will
be spinning off of the far western extent of the tropical cyclone.
We could see a few late afternoon showers mainly east of Lexington,
but chances remain fairly low. The best chances will be well east
across eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, a dry FROPA is to be expected
for the rest of the area.
===== Thursday - Weekend =====
Dry weather will continue for Thursday and into the weekend. Temps
for Thursday and Friday should recover to near normal area-wide,
with temps in the upper 80s. However, a secondary dry cold front
will swing through on Friday, which will bring a reinforcing shot of
cooler air for the weekend. Temps will be in the low 80s for
Saturday and Sunday, with dewpoints in the 50s. Sunday morning could
be really nice with temps starting out in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024
Another morning of optimal radiational cooling will allow for fog to
develop toward dawn near some of the TAF sites. A couple sites could
dip into IFR visibilities but should recover to VFR levels shortly
after dawn.
The remainder of the daylight hours should feature mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions. Nearby surface high pressure will keep
winds fairly light.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...DM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:25 AM EDT---------------
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