ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:21 PM EDT418
FXUS61 KILN 052321
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
721 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south across the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into
the Ohio Valley through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The decaying MCS from this morning that moved into northern
portions of our area has led to a relative min in instability
across much of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio, including
portions of our northwest fa. As a result, any additional
shower/thunderstorm development through late afternoon into
early evening across our north is somewhat in doubt. The cu
field off the visible satellite imagery does not look terribly
impressive so will trend toward a drier forecast as we head into
this evening. With clearing skies across much of the area
tonight and relatively light winds, areas of fog will be
possible once again later tonight, especially in the river
valleys of the south and east. Lows tonight will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary will push slowly south into our area Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a surface wave rides east along it. There
is a fair amount of model difference in the placement and the
timing of the front which results in some uncertainty in the
overall forecast in the short term.
To the south of the boundary, temperatures will warm nicely
through the day with good instability developing. Will range
highs from the upper 80s in the north to the low to mid 90s
across the south. With dewpoints in the low to possibly mid
70s, heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible
Tuesday afternoon, especially across our south.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
western Great Lakes early Tuesday morning. These will be along
and ahead of the low and mainly to the north of the boundary.
This area of pcpn is expected to track east southeast through
the day on Tuesday and mainly affect the northern portions of
our area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Shear will be
on the increase ahead of the surface wave so a few severe storms
will be possible Tuesday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind and
locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat but it will be
tough to rule out a couple of rotating storms in the vicinity
of the boundary and ahead of the surface wave.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A boundary will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development
for Wednesday. Expect precipitation to taper off by Wednesday
evening leaving dry conditions for Wednesday night through the day
on Thursday. Precipitation chances later in the week will be
dependent on the exact track of Debby and interactions with an upper
trough. Limited any precipitation chances Thursday night through
Friday to a slight chance across eastern portions of the region for
now. A couple of disturbances Saturday into Sunday will bring
additional precipitation chances to the region.
Overall, temperatures during the long term will be near or below
normal. A majority of the timeframe however will see below normal
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers/storms expected to miss the majority of the terminals
before dissipating tonight. KDAY would have the best chance
given that the storms are currently located in north-central
IN, but loss of daytime heating will lead to a gradual
dissipation of these storms overnight.
Fog development expected again tonight, especially near the
river valleys. Greatest reductions at KLUK once again, but have
a mention of BR across most other terminals given the low
chance for some patchy overland fog.
Once the fog burns off, expecting VFR conditions the rest of the
taf period. Winds remain below 10 kts, primarily out of the WSW.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible into Tuesday night.
MVFR/IFR conditions possible Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:21 PM EDT---------------
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