ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:44 PM EDT596
FXUS61 KILN 032344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
744 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will taper off this
evening as an upper level low pressure system moves off to our
east. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the
region Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper level trough axis will shift east of the area through
tonight. With some daytime heating, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across central
Ohio, with some more spotty activity extending southwestward
into the Tri-State region. Expect this activity to continue to
pivot south and east across our area through late afternoon into
early evening.
Pcpn should gradually weaken/dissipate this evening as we lose
the daytime heating. Skies will then become mostly clear and
with light winds, some areas of fog will develop across much of
the region late tonight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will settle into the area during the day on
Sunday before beginning to shift east Sunday night. This will
lead to dry conditions with highs in the 85 to 90 degree range.
Lows Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Synoptically, at the start of the work week, a robust upper level
trough will be centered just east of the Hudson Bay and continues to
slowly work its way east. Meanwhile, an area of ridging over
southwest CONUS expands northwest, retrograding slightly. Finally,
remnants of Tropical Depression 4 will be moving over Florida,
somewhat detached from the larger flow regime.
Down near the surface, the boundary associated with the upper level
trough remains stretched out across the northern Great lakes, while
our CWA is mostly influenced by an area of weak high pressure. This
results in mostly clear skies with calm conditions. A shortwave off
to our northwest may help promote some subtle WAA and the area
remains rather muggy. Tds will reach the low 70s Monday, with "feels-
like" temps in the 90s area wide, with splotchy patches in the upper
90s around our metro areas. Overnight lows fall into the low 70s.
Tuesday, the shortwave moves into the region, dragging a weak cold
front along with it. Overall forcing isn't robust, but we may see
some scattered showers/ storms, particularly with PM diurnal
heating. Stuck with the blend and kept chance PoPs in. Thanks to
this boundary, we will see a bit of a temp gradient across the
CWA... right now, went with low 80s in the north/ 90s in the south
(this will change depending on timing/placement of boundary/ clouds/
rain).
The system continues its track through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday; kept slight PoPs in and, again, have our area eating a
temp gradient. After this system passes, the area should remain dry
and Wednesday/ Thursday may provide a slight relief to the heat. Tds
slowly fall and temperatures moderate a bit closer to climatological
normals (mid 80s). However, confidence during this period is low,
given that extended guidance gets a bit muddled, largely thanks to
the uncertainty with the track and influence of TD4.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of the shower activity is nearby KLUK, but moving away
from the TAF site and therefore went with dry conditions at the
TAF locations. Cloud cover will decrease this evening into the
overnight. There will be a good chance for fog development
overnight. During the day on Sunday cu will develop. There is a
weak disturbance with limited moisture moving through Sunday
afternoon. This feature could bring some sprinkles or very light
showers. Coverage and intensity are not expected to be high
enough to include at the TAFs.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:44 PM EDT---------------
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