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670 FXUS64 KLIX 240831AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA331 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024Deep tropical moisture continues to stream northward from the southern gulf. This will set up over the coastal bend of TX into the LCH area again and farther NE from there. Once this area gets going this morning, it will eventually release outflow boundaries which will be capable of developing new activity to the east of this main sh/ts complex. As we get into the warmest part of the day, it should help sh/ts develop quite easily as the environment is still unstable and shouldn't take much to develop storms. The main areas that see the most rainfall should be from the TX coastal bend into LCH to near JAN then arcing back SE to near Pensacola and well into the gulf. We will be under this arc for most of the day. But most areas will still get some rain today, it just may be later in the day for areas around New Orleans and coastal Mississippi. We should see rainfall develop and move NE over the western portions of the area early today, so most of these areas could see some heavy rainfall this morning before weakening to just showers. This will also keep temps lower in these areas. Looking at the temps structure, one can easily see where we expect the most activity through most of the day. PW values remain high and north of 2.0" today and Thursday so no surprise, precip numbers will also remain high. Some areas are becoming saturated and additional rainfall could cause some flooding issues for these locations, but this is not expected to be widespread at the moment. Heavy rainfall and very slight chances of severe will remain along with water/land spout possibilities.&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024Not a lot of change still expected through the extended. The main area of deep moisture will continue to be located over the western and NW gulf coast while our precip chances will remain high, we are not looking at the amounts that areas to the west will be looking at. There is some indications of this monsoon-like plume will begin to weaken by mid to late next week and we start getting a more easterlies regime started. This would be caused by the Bermuda High ridging well into the gulf by that time.&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024All terminals will be VFR with all having equal high chances of getting IFR in TSRA today. These will be prevailing for mainly inland terminals and tempo for areas near the coast. During the evening, VFR conditons should be the rule with only one or two having SHRA/TSRA restrictions overnight as most sh/ts activity decays.&&.MARINE...Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024Outside any storms, which will be plentiful near the Atchafalaya River, winds and seas should be on the low side as winds should remain 10kt or less. These basic conditions should repeat through this week. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 82 70 85 70 / 100 40 70 20 BTR 87 75 89 75 / 100 40 80 20 ASD 88 73 90 74 / 90 40 70 20 MSY 88 77 89 78 / 90 50 80 20 GPT 88 74 89 75 / 80 40 60 20 PQL 90 73 93 74 / 80 50 60 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
