LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 4:16 PM EDT569
FXUS63 KLMK 302016
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Severe thunderstorms should exit the region by late this
afternoon. Additional storms, some strong to severe, are
possible overnight. The main threats with severe storms will be
damaging winds.
* Unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm chances through the
end of the week. Outside of storms, very warm and at times
oppressively humid conditions expected each day, with the heat
index exceeding 100 degrees at times.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
The severe storms from earlier have pushed out of the region into
eastern Kentucky and middle Tennessee, so the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch that had been in effect for central Kentucky has been
cancelled.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
A line of strong to severe storms continue to push toward the TN
border at the time of this writing. Storms are moving into an
unstable environment with high DCAPEs and numerous reports of wind
damage have been received by the office. This line should push south
and east of the region by early evening.
In the wake of the line, clearing and drying have been observed via
visible satellite. Additional convective development remains
possible overnight, but it will take some time for us to destabilize
again. Various boundaries left over from ongoing convection could
help to initiate storms, but an additional MCS over the Midwest
could take aim at the region after 00z. Models vary considerably on
its overall evolution, and their track record over the last few days
have been poor, so confidence in how this will all play out remains
low. Given upper wind fields and steering flow, it seems that areas
along and west of I-65 would have the best potential to be impacted
by the MCS over the Midwest.
Tomorrow's forecast remains complicated. Models hint at yet another
MCS that could take aim at the region during the daylight hours.
Should this happen, we'll likely recover enough from the overnight
storms to set up a strong/severe storm threat along with potential
for flash flooding. If we end up staying drier than anticipated,
impactful heat becomes a concern as temps/dewpoints would rise to
heat advisory levels across much of the area. Given that our region
will still be in an active NW flow pattern, will hold off on any
heat headlines.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Upper ridging remains a prominent feature across much of the US
through the work week as an upper 5H low swings over the OH Valley
before becoming enveloped within the large scale trough this
weekend. This setup results in continued NW upper flow, allowing for
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. NCEP's Integrated Water
Vapor Transport shows abundant moisture advecting from the Gulf
around the upper ridge and directly into the our region, resulting
in high PWAT values ranging from 1.70 to around 2.00 inches during
this timeframe. Shear values remain modest on Thursday before
picking up a bit Friday as the upper low tracks over IN/OH, while
warm sector instability yields daily CAPE values over 2000 J/kg
during peak heating. Uncertainty remains in any upstream MCS
remnants making their way into the our CWA, but higher confidence
exists with pulse storm modes during the afternoon hours. With that
said, convective temps are quite high on Thursday, with model
soundings showing mid 90s needed to spark convection, but better
chances may exist on Friday as convective temps drop to the lower
90s. SPC does have our CWA within a Marginal Risk for Thursday
morning with a Slight Risk clipping some of our southern Indiana
counties from Thursday 12z to Friday 12z. Expecting max temps on
Thursday to reach mid 90s and low 90s on Friday.
A surface cold front ahead of a highly modified airmass will push
through the area on Saturday afternoon, bringing an end to the
volatile pattern we've experienced this past week. Expect one last
day of scattered showers and thunderstorms with high temps on the
day reaching into the upper 80s before FROPA.
Aforementioned front appears to hang up just past the Appalachians
on Sunday, which warrants slight chance mention of thunderstorms
across our eastern CWA, but confidence is low. Expect more people to
have a dry end to the weekend with highs on Sunday in the low 90s.
Dry conditions look to continue into the new work week ridging
builds back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Low confidence and complicated forecast ahead. A line of showers and
storms are currently pushing through southern IN and central KY, and
these have resulted in some very brief gusty winds and low cigs/vis
for terminals impacted. This activity should quickly race to the
southeast and clear the region within the next several hours.
We should see some clearing/drying in the wake of this activity,
though how the evening and overnight hours evolve remain uncertain.
Models vary considerably on how activity in the Midwest will
develop, which will have impacts on the forecast tonight. For now,
handling overnight potential with VCTS/VCSH mentions, and will
update/amend as confidence increases.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...CRG
AVIATION...DM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 4:16 PM EDT---------------
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