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454 FXUS64 KMOB 261005AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024There is finally a pattern change on the horizon. However, daily rain chances will remain high. The upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains will be split in two as an upper ridge over the northern Plains slips eastward over the Great Lakes region and merges with the upper high over the northeast Gulf.This will form an omega block pattern over the eastern US, with one upper trough extending down the Eastern Seaboard and the other upper trough over the central and southern Plains. At the surface, the weak high pressure across the region will be replaced by a weak trough slipping southwestward from the Carolinas to the Deep South.A typical diurnal convective setup will persist into the weekend an beyond, but with precipitable water values (PWATs) remaining around 2.2", scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage occurring south of US Highway 84. This precipitation will dissipate by midnight, but a few showers should linger along the coast after midnight into Saturday morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop area-wide Saturday afternoon. A few of the stronger storms have the potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph both days.However the main concern will be the risk of water issues as the storms have the potential of being efficient rainers, and will need to be monitored.High temperatures both days will remain near normal, ranging from 89 to 94 degrees, with heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly above normal, and range from 71 to 74 degrees inland areas, and from 75 to 79 degrees along the coast. A LOW rip current risk is expected to continue for all beaches through the near term. /22&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024Upper level ridging will remain in place over the local areathrough the weekend as a pronounced omega block pattern lingers up in the upper levels. Deep layer moisture will be in place across the the area despite the upper ridging with PWAT values hovering around 2 inches. Another round of scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and storms will likely begin developing Sunday morning along the coast and offshore Gulf waters before spreading inland during the afternoon. As we head into early next week, the overall upper level pattern will begin to change with the upper ridging gradually retrograding westward and becoming centered over south central and southwestern portions of the US. At the same time, a large upper trough will begin to take hold over the eastern US which will place the local area within a northwesterly flow pattern aloft through the middle of next week. This northwesterly flow will likely bring some slightly drier air into portions of the area by next week which could help to reduce PoPs slightly. We'll still be looking at daily chances for showersand storms though with convection following a typical summer timepattern. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out during the period with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main concerns.Temperatures will gradually rise through the period with highs onSunday topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. By early tomiddle next week, high temperatures will be back in the lower andmiddle 90s. Dew points will also trend higher which will result in hot and muggy conditions through the period. Heat index values may begin to approach advisory thresholds by early next week. /14&&.MARINE...Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near occasional scattered to numerous thunderstorms into early next week, and conditions will remain favorable for the development of waterspouts over the next few days. Otherwise, a light northeasterly wind this morning will become light southeasterly tosoutherly in the afternoon through the weekend, then shifting southwesterly on Monday. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 90 73 89 75 90 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 20 70 30 70 30 Pensacola 90 76 89 77 90 77 90 76 / 60 30 70 40 70 40 70 40 Destin 90 79 90 79 90 79 89 79 / 50 30 60 40 70 50 70 40 Evergreen 91 72 91 73 90 73 90 72 / 40 30 70 20 70 30 70 30 Waynesboro 90 71 91 71 92 73 92 73 / 50 50 70 20 70 20 60 20 Camden 89 72 91 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 70 30 70 30 70 20 Crestview 93 73 92 73 91 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 30 70 40 70 30 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
