PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 12:54 AM EDT690
FXUS61 KPBZ 280454 AAB
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry today. Warm temperatures, but a more unsettled
pattern is expected through the upcoming week with a series of
crossing disturbances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Overnight period does not require any major changes.
A brief blocking pattern will develop today with as an upper
low deepens over the Atlantic, off the New England coast, and a
weakening trough slowly moving across the Midwest. Our area
will rest in between the two systems in a region of strong
subsidence. As the lower levels continue to warm under southwest
flow, the mid and upper levels will see dry air advecting in on
the backside of the Atlantic low. This will create a setup
where the drier air aloft will mix down to the surface keeping
dewpoints in the comfortable range. Additionally, with lots of
sun, warm air advection and a dry ground, temperatures should
efficiently warm today. Because of this will go higher than the
NBM mean, leaning toward the 75th percentile. Current NBM probs
of MaxT >90 are generally 60 to 90% south of I-80 and west of
the ridges.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances slowly increase Monday and Monday night.
- Continued warm and unsettled on Tuesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The Atlantic upper low will begin to drift northward late
tonight and Monday morning. This will allow the weakening
trough to the west to move eastward, reaching western Ohio
Monday morning. As the western trough encounters the subsidence
to the west of the upper low, which will move over New England
Monday afternoon, it will lose some of its energy and moisture.
Precipitation moving eastward with the trough will struggle to
make it very far east. Latest CAM models are showing activity
moving across Ohio on Monday with the trough, but then rapidly
decreasing in strength and coverage as it moves eastward. PoPs
Monday will be tricky, but the latest blends have been trending
lower.
The weakening trough will settle in over the region Monday night
and Tuesday. A secondary wave, behind the trough will move
through Ohio Tuesday morning. A surface cold front will
accompany this wave and slowly move eastward on Tuesday. The
area looks to be under two separate periods for showers and
storms. The first will be during the morning/afternoon, the
second during the evening. Current model data is depicting a
better chance for more wide spread and stronger activity late in
the day ahead of the surface boundary. Still much to be
determined with timing and strength.
Temperatures will remain well into the 80s both days and
humidity levels will increase as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A few rounds of disturbances pass into the Ohio River Valley
Wed-Fri; shower and thunderstorms chances increase.
- Canadian wildfire smoke could make an appearance.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A series of disturbances will move through the region keeping in
the risk for showers and storms pretty much each day. Timing of
the activity will be predicated on the speed of the upper level
waves and likely tied to the diurnal cycle.
Along with precipitation, northwest flow may yield elevated Canadian
wildfire smoke across the region. Air quality will likely not
be a concern, but it may impact our afternoon temperatures
(trending cooler than models project).
Long range models are backing off the threat for excessive heat
due to 594-595dm ridge axis building over the Rockies,
continuing to favor northwest flow across the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Minimal cloud coverage and light wind is expected through the
TAF period with high pressure centered across the Upper Ohio
Valley and eastern Great Lakes region.
.Outlook...
VFR will continue before periodic restriction potential returns
with scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Monday through
Thursday with a series of low pressure troughs.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...Hefferan/22
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 12:54 AM EDT---------------
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