ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 6:54 AM EDT861
FXUS61 KILN 111054
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
654 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will pass across the region today. High
pressure will build in behind this system and persist into
Monday. Low pressure will then approach from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers continue to develop as they move into the forecast area.
Expect them to extend a bit more south as this band crosses the
region during the early part of the period. Still cannot
completely rule out a bit of thunder along and north of I-70.
The band of showers will move through fairly quickly this
morning ahead of a surface trough that extends from northern
Indiana into southern Illinois.
The trough will move through from mid morning into the early
afternoon. Clouds will decrease but winds will pick up with
some gusts to around 30 mph. Highs will be close to persistence
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will develop into the area through the period.
Winds will diminish in the early evening, but some clouds could
linger before finally clearing out after midnight. Thereafter,
atmosphere will be quite dry. Maybe there could be some late day
diurnal cumulus.
It will be a cool night with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But
highs will be trending warmer and reaching the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a dry start Sunday night and Monday morning under high
pressure, clouds will increase and a few showers and thunderstorms
may move in Monday afternoon ahead of low pressure advancing from
the west. As the low tracks to Southern Indiana on Tuesday, showers
and thunderstorms will become likely to categorical. Severe storms
appear unlikely due to a weak wind fields and modest instability.
The system is forecast to move to the East Coast on Wednesday,
providing diminishing chances for showers and storms. For Thursday
and Friday, weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass
may trigger a few more showers and storms.
Temperatures are forecast to be normal to above normal through the
period. Highs start in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday under warm
advection, before clouds, precip and cold advection cause readings
to retreat to the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Insolation and warm advection will allow a return to the mid and
upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will track across the TAF sites during the early part
of the period. Expect conditions to remain VFR except perhaps at
the Columbus terminals where some temporary MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are not out of the question.
Surface trough will move through the sites between 14Z and 17Z.
Clouds will scatter. Winds will veer to the west northwest and
strengthen. Some gusts up to 25 kt will occur through the rest
of the daytime period. Winds, both sustained and gusts, will
decrease towards 00Z. Few to scattered clouds may persist
through the night.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as
thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 6:54 AM EDT---------------
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