ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 2:44 PM EDT791
FXUS61 KILN 271844
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place tonight offering dry conditions.
An unsettled weather pattern will develop for Sunday and continue
through the week, with several episodes of showers and storms
expected through the workweek. Seasonably warm and humid conditions
will prevail through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A narrow mid level ridge axis positioned just to our west will build
across the area overnight.
Skies will start out clear this evening with an increase in high
level clouds overnight and some mid level clouds encroaching
into the far southwest toward daybreak Sunday.
Lows tonight will generally dip into the lower to mid 60s, with some
upper 60s across Northern Kentucky and Southeast Indiana where cloud
cover will be thickest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture increases as a mid level shortwave rides the back side of
the departing ridge. Low level moisture increases with surface
dewpoints into the lower 70s across the southwest Sunday afternoon.
This will support ML CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG. Expect scattered
convection to develop by early afternoon into our southwest counties
and then to about ILN by late afternoon. High temperatures to range
from the lower/middle 80s over the southwest (where clouds and pcpn
will be observed) to the lower 90s northeast.
As the shortwave and low level moisture advection continue north-
northeast - showers and thunderstorms will overspread the entire FA
Sunday night. With an axis of 2 inch PWATs advecting into the area -
some of the storms may contain locally heavy rainfall. Lows Sunday
night will be mild - ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm, humid, and convectively active weather pattern is setting up
for next week.
On Monday morning, a mid-level trough axis will be in place from the
upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley. A very moist air mass will
already be in place across the Ohio Valley, with precipitable water
values of around 2 inches, continuing through the rest of the week.
Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s through the week as
well. The large-scale pattern, with a trough slowly moving through
the area, will support broad ascent on Monday and Tuesday, providing
high confidence for generally disorganized convection on each day.
Later in the week, a more progressive northwest flow pattern will
set up over the region, with no real change to the moist and
unstable conditions -- especially with some steepening lapse rates
aloft as a result of an EML moving into the region. Thus, a more
episodic MCS type of pattern could set up later in the week -- not
necessarily right over the ILN CWA, but somewhere in the region.
Confidence in specifics for the convective forecast is fairly low,
but there may end up being some degree of potential for hazardous
weather. There could be some potential for heavy rainfall and
isolated damaging wind on Monday and perhaps Tuesday, with some
chance of a greater threat for wind later Tuesday through the rest
of the week. Confidence is too low to include in the HWO as of now.
With temperatures reaching the upper 80s to around 90 by Wednesday,
and dewpoints in the 70s, there will be a chance for heat indices to
approach 100 degrees -- particularly in the south and southwestern
ILN forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions to continue overnight into Sunday. Moisture will
increase Sunday as high pressure shifts off to the east.
Initially, expect an increase in high level clouds overnight and
then mid level clouds early Sunday. As moisture and instability
increases there will be an increasing chance for the
development of thunderstorms from the southwest Sunday
afternoon. Have a mention of pcpn in the KCVG 30 hour TAF.
Light east winds to veer to the southeast overnight and then
become southerly Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 2:44 PM EDT---------------
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