PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 10:43 AM EDT207
FXUS61 KPBZ 261443
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1043 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air works in for Friday ahead of a warmup for the
weekend. Unsettled weather returns to start the next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry, comfortable day with highs around normal.
- Wildfire smoke will provide a hazy look with no surface effects.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure builds across the Great Lakes today and will
provide a beautiful end to the week. Low-level northerly flow
will reinforce dry air under strong subsidence and highs will be
right around normal, but dew points in the low 50s will provide
a very comfortable day. The only fly in the ointment will be
the return of wildfire smoke aloft as the HRRR smoke product
pushes a plume south across Lake Erie and through our region
today. No effects at the surface are expected, though the skies
will have a hazy look and high temperatures will be held in
check by a degree or two as a result. Given the dry and well-
mixed boundary layer, dew points will likely lose a couple more
degrees in the afternoon, so have erred toward the lower end of
the distribution.
We'll again radiate well tonight under high pressure and light wind.
Some patchy river valley fog is again possible, but the continued
drying of the airmass will preclude much coverage otherwise. Lows
will fall a few ticks below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Remaining dry but becoming warmer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence ridging builds for most of the short term period as
an upper low cuts off to our east and troughing digs to our west
maintaining dry weather locally. Ensemble mean 500 mb heights rise
to 588-592 dm and, as the surface high slowly migrates east,
southerly return flow will begin an increase in temperatures
and moisture through the weekend. Probabilities for >90F jump to
70-80% on Sunday primarily south of I-80. Dew points will be on
the rise as well so it will feel a bit more muggy especially by
Sunday, though at this point humidity doesn't look oppressive
as even the high end of the distribution tops dew points out in
the mid 60s.
Ridging will begin to shunt to the east on Sunday as ensemble
clusters absorb a cutoff upper low across the deep South back into
the flow aloft. Generally good agreement amongst them on its
amplification and track through the Ohio Valley provides overall
high confidence in the evolution of the pattern which will introduce
some high clouds from the west late on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A few rounds of disturbances pass into the middle of next week.
- Moderate risk of excessive heat beginning in August.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Some disagreement in the ensemble clusters comes into play with how
the other cutoff low to our east evolves, though most keep it
around to a varying degree through the day on Monday. This
scenario would favor a slightly drier solution, though if it
departs quicker which is currently a less likely but still
possible outcome, an approaching wave from the west will be
allowed to move in quicker and support a wetter solution. Either
way, rain chances increase on Monday and continue through mid-
week with a series of disturbances as there is good agreement
that the Northeast sits under a low amplitude trough under-cut
by warm moist southwest flow in response to a strong developing
ridge over the south-central United States. This pattern is
climatologically supportive of severe weather chances, although
many of the details may not be resolved until next week draws
closer. Machine learning continues to paint a broad-brushed, low
probability severe threat by mid-week.
With flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies,
prominent wildfire smoke could make another return to the Pittsburgh
region, though fine details are usually resolved with two days lead
time.
In addition, heat concerns return as the central CONUS ridge
migrates eastward. CPC has issued another moderate risk of excessive
heat from August 2nd through August 6th.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under building high
pressure. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a few
cumulus clouds should develop through the day. Wind will be
light out of the N-NE.
.Outlook...
VFR continues under high pressure through the weekend. A
moisture increase may bring precipitation chances and potential
restrictions early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB/Milcarek
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 10:43 AM EDT---------------
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