CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 9:09 AM EDT846
FXUS61 KCLE 271309
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
909 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through much of the weekend
before moving into New England late Sunday. A weak surface
trough will lift north towards the region on Monday and linger
through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
905 AM Update...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning.
Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather is expected through Sunday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft persist across the region. Weak MSLP
gradients will allow a lake breeze to develop during the
afternoon hours today and on Sunday. Only minor change made to
the forecast was to incorporate some lower dew point guidance in
the afternoon hours for today and Sunday as a dry air mass will
exist atop a weak low-level inversion.
Seasonable highs in the mid-80s are expected today, while
above-average temperatures in the lower 90s will return by
Sunday as the ridge continues to amplify. Not anticipating any
smoke/haze concerns from the wildfires out west (US and Canada)
as the upper ridge will direct these plumes well to the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The nice and quiet weather that we are having this weekend will
change starting late Sunday night into Monday. And out weather
pattern will become more unsettled and also bring some much needed
rainfall across the area for several days next week. The Omega block
that was over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the past couple
days will break down Sunday night. A weak, broad upper trough will
move from the Midwest into our region Monday. This trough will be
slow to move through our region and will linger through the middle
of next week. Slight POPs will start to show up in the forecast
Sunday night over northwest Ohio. Scattered showers and a few storms
will become more likely for much of northern Ohio on Monday. For far
NEOH and NWPA, those areas will have lower POPs in the slight to
chance range. Alot of the convection that develops during the
daytime heating on Monday will decrease during the late evening and
overnight hours.
The trough will become a little strong and a sharper axis that will
pivot over our area late Tuesday and Tuesday night. This time period
will have the highest POPs 60 to 70 percent for showers and general
thunderstorms as well as the better potential for most if not all
the area to see at least some measurable rainfall. The latest
trends for the average QPF over those couple of days will be 0.50"
to 1.0" but there may be some isolated higher amounts for few lucky
spots if they see more of the heavier downpours from any passing
convection. Regard severe weather potential and the thermodynamics
Monday and Tuesday, it does not appear to be all that much. There
could be an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds but at this we
are not expecting any organized severe convection. High temperatures
will be very warm outside of any rain showers, in the middle to
upper 80s and somewhat humid conditions too.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The end of next week into the start of next weekend will favor a
northwest flow aloft with ridge of high pressure anchored somewhere
over the central CONUS. The model guidance is hinting at some MCS
type activity setting up somewhere over the Midwest, lower Great
Lakes, and maybe the Ohio Valley. The is a signal in the model
output and data but low confidence on location, timing, etc. It will
be the next potential impactful weather system to maybe monitor
future trends. We will broad brush some daily and night POPs 20 to 35
percent through the end of next week into the weekend. High
temperatures will continue to be slightly above average in the
middle 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period as periodic high cirrus spread across
the area. Winds are primarily light and variable this morning.
Winds will favor an east to southeast direction by late morning
and early afternoon, around 5 knots. Stronger north to northeast
flow of around 10 knots will be found at CLE/ERI resulting from
a lake breeze.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.S. will
continue to bring relatively quiet marine weather conditions this
weekend. There will be weak wind shifts this morning through Sunday
afternoon due to the mesoscale effects of a night time land breeze
and afternoon lake breezes this weekend. For today, there will be a
northeast flow 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet, but still not
expecting any headlines at this time. That high pressure system
will drift off the East Coast late Sunday and a south-southwest flow
of 5-10 knots will become established across Lake Erie through
Tuesday night. Late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, a
surface trough or weak cold front will track across the lake. The
low level flow and surface winds may become light and variable 5 to
10 knots by the middle of next week. There will be an increase of
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout next week starting
on Monday which may result in locally higher winds and waves.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 9:09 AM EDT---------------
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