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579 FXUS64 KMOB 242040AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL340 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024Through Thursday, an upper level low organizes over the eastern Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi River Valley, with the upper ridge remaining over eastern portions of the Southeast. This creates a decently strong band of zonal upper flow (for the Southeast in the summer) just northwest of the forecast area. On the east side of this zone is a band of increased subsidence, with a corresponding band of drier air moving northeast across the western half of the forecast area tonight into Thursday morning. Rain chances see a drop from previous days tonight into Thursday as a result, especially northwest of I-65. Forecast area wide, a few may become strong to marginally severe, with instability the limiter (MLCapes < 2000J/kg). At this time, the best, albeit low, chance is along the coast or southeast of I-65 . With weak wind shear, summer pulse severe storms are the expected type of storm.With upper subsidence continuing, but a drop in moisture levels, temperatures rise to around seasonal norms. Temperatures this afternoon and Thursday are expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tonight, temperatures are expected to bottom out around 70 over northwestern portions of the forecast area, with mid to upper 70s south of I-10.A Low Risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday, with an uptick to moderate Thursday night into Saturday. From there, a drop back to low is expected for the rest of the weekend into the coming week./16&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024An upper level ridge will gradually build westward from the western Atlantic into the southeast states through the weekend. The ridge moves west of the area early next week as an upper leveltrough develops across the eastern states. At the sfc, highpressure to our east will maintain a moist, southerly flow throughthe period with precipitable water values over 2+ inches. This will maintain the pattern of scattered to locally numerous showersand storms starting near the coast in the morning and spreading inland through the afternoon hours. While an isolated strong stormwith gusty winds cannot be ruled out, the severe weather risk remains low. The main threat will be locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. High temps each afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values approaching advisory criteria bylate this weekend. /13&&.MARINE...Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024General onshore flow during the daytime with a light offshore flow developing overnight is expected through the forecast. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possiblenear thunderstorms. /16&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 72 90 74 91 74 91 75 92 / 40 60 20 40 20 50 20 60 Pensacola 76 89 76 91 77 92 77 91 / 50 50 20 40 20 40 20 50 Destin 78 90 79 91 80 91 80 91 / 60 50 20 40 10 40 10 50 Evergreen 71 90 71 91 72 92 72 91 / 50 60 10 40 10 50 10 60 Waynesboro 70 89 70 92 72 93 72 93 / 40 60 10 40 10 50 10 50 Camden 70 88 70 90 71 91 72 92 / 50 50 10 40 10 40 10 50 Crestview 72 91 72 93 73 94 73 93 / 60 70 20 60 10 60 20 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
