CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 4:00 AM EDT408
FXUS61 KCLE 260800
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through much of the weekend
before moving into New England late Sunday. A weak low pressure
system will lift toward the region by early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected through Saturday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft persist across the region. Weak MSLP
gradients will allow a lake breeze to develop during the
afternoon hours today and Saturday. Increased afternoon mixing
into the 700 mb dry air could drop dew points into the 40s and
thus went a few degrees below NBM. With the dry air in place,
sunny skies and seasonable highs in the low to mid-80s are
expected. Not anticipating any smoke/haze concerns from the
wildfires out west (US and Canada) as the amplified upper ridge
will direct these plumes well to the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An elongated from north to south oriented upper level ridge with be
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday night. The ridge axis
will continue to move eastward Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic and
East Coast at the same time less defined in the mid level flow.
Before it goes away for the latter half of the weekend, we will
still have some nice weather from this ridge of high pressure
Saturday and most of Sunday. We will have one more evening and
overnight on Saturday with relatively drier air and dewpoints in the
middle 50s. The overnight low temps will be comfortable in the
lower 60s away from the lakeshore.
Sunday will be feeling summery across the region with sunshine
followed by an increased in high and mid level clouds moving in from
the west Sunday evening into the overnight. High temps will reach
the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light southerly winds and flow will
return Sunday with an uptick in humidity. An upper level trough will
slowly move from the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Sunday night and linger over the region for a couple days. Forecast
models have slowed down the timing of rain chances as well as
slightly decreased for Sunday night. The initial piece of mid level
energy on the leading edge of this trough will weaken and have
limited moisture as it moves across Ohio. The POPs Monday for s
scattered showers and a few storms increase between 40 to 60 percent
over NWOH and and NEOH with less than 30 percent for NWPA Monday
afternoon. Most of the convection Monday will decrease in coverage
late in the evening and overnight period but still keeping chance
POPs in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The better potential and coverage of rain chances will come on
Tuesday. The main axis of the upper level trough will track from
west to east across the region Tuesday. At the surface, there will
also be a weak surface trough that will slowly move through late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The atmosphere will also have
some better moisture to work with in the development of scattered
convection becoming likely with POPs around 70 percent areawide
Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Rain chances will gradually
decrease for NWOH by Wednesday morning but depending on where that
surface boundary and mid level support is located midday Wednesday,
we will potentially have another round of chance to likely POPs for
NEOH and NWPA on Wednesday. One note to mention about the latest
model guidance regarding the overall average QPF expected for the
early to mid week timeframe has trended slightly lowered in the half
an inch to 1 inch across the area for the 2 or 3 day time window.
As we look towards the end of next week, the weather pattern favors
a broad trough near the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario. That
will put northern Ohio and NWPA in west-northwest flow aloft and a
summertime upper level ridge slowly expanding eastward from the
western CONUS into the Midwest possibly. We may have to watch the
trends for some "ridge rider" disturbances coming through the mid
level flow late next week and possible convection. The aspect of
the forecast is very uncertain at this time and will leave a broad
30 percent POPs late next week. Temperatures will continue to be
slightly above average in the 80s to near 90 at times through next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Still monitoring the potential for
brief, patchy fog at YNG, though the potential appears low. Skies
will clear by Friday morning and should stay clear into Friday
night. Winds are light early this morning, less than 5 knots,
slightly favoring a northeast direction. Winds will increase
near 10 knots by Friday afternoon, continuing to favor an east
to northeast wind.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions will be very good on Lake Erie through
this weekend. High pressure will be near lake through the weekend as
well. Winds will become northeasterly today 5 to 15 knots. Light and
variable winds are expected tonight. There may be a light land
breeze that develops offshore during the next two nights as well as
a light lake breeze from the lakeshore and slightly inland during
the next couple of afternoons. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet today
decrease tonight and Saturday with the light winds. A light southerly
flow around 5 to 15 knots will return by Sunday. Locally higher
wind gusts and waves may be possible in and near thunderstorms
early to middle of next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 4:00 AM EDT---------------
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