IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 2:35 PM EDT808
FXUS63 KIWX 241835
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20-30% chances for showers/storms south of US 24 between now and
sunrise Thursday
- Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend
with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
- Some Canadian wildfire smoke aloft may drift into the Great
Lakes region Friday and into the weekend. No air quality
concerns as of now as the smoke is expected to remain aloft.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Looking at GOES visible satellite imagery and the 15Z WPC surface
map, it is evident that the cold front has passed through most of,
if not all of, the CWA. Currently, the cold front is draped from
Peoria, IL to Marion, IN to Toledo, OH. Have significantly decreased
PoPs for much of the area today as the front went through faster
than expected in previous forecasts. As the attendant upper level
trough pivots through today, a few showers will be possible this
evening and overnight south of US 24. CAA filters in behind the
aforementioned frontal boundary, with more comfortable humidity and
lows dropping into the upper 50s tonight.
Tomorrow, another area of high pressure settles in across the Great
Lakes region from Canada. Late week and through the weekend will be
dry and less humid as this area of high pressure sticks around
through Saturday. As ridging builds across the central CONUS and
edges eastward, temperatures will warm throughout the weekend into
the upper 80s to near 90.
Wildfire smoke from active wildfires in the northwestern US and
western Canada remains aloft over much of Canada and the central US.
The HRRR and RAP both depict a plume of wildfire smoke to move south
over the Great Lakes region by Friday morning. This smoke should
mainly stay aloft, but it will result in a hazy appearance of the
sky and potentially a colorful sunset tonight. As of now, there are
no air quality concerns for the weekend.
As the ridge moves to the east, areas of weak to moderate mid level
vorticity combined with dominant southwesterly flow will help to
advect increased moisture towards our area. As a result, dewpoints,
cloud coverage, and rain chances will likely begin to increase into
early next week. One or more rounds of thunderstorms could develop
during the Monday to Wednesday timeframe and ride the periphery of
the weakening ridge. Humidity will increase alongside temperatures,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by early next week.
Going into Tuesday and Wednesday, models seem fairly confident in a
more robust trough of low pressure moving over the Great Lakes. This
will also help to increase rain chances into the middle of next
week, especially on Tuesday. Although there is large uncertainty
this far out, there are early indications that there may be a better
chance for severe weather with this feature. At the very least,
temperatures look to remain well into the 80s with dew points in the
upper 60s and lower 70s through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Post-frontal stratocu in the MVFR to low VFR range should improve to
all VFR with cigs near 4 kft this afternoon. Any organized
convection looks to pass off to the south of the terminals this
afternoon into tonight, with drier air on the leading edge of an
approaching low level anticyclone providing light northerly winds
and VFR conditions into Thursday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson/Ainsworth
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 2:35 PM EDT---------------
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