PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 2:54 AM CDT732
FXUS63 KPAH 260754
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily chance of showers and storms for all or a portion of
the region will continue through at least next Friday.
However, the Evansville Tri State may stay dry through
Saturday.
- Below normal high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s
will continue through Sunday and possibly into Monday.
- Temperatures and humidity levels will trend upward through the
work week, with head index readings 100-105 possible Tuesday
through next Friday. The pattern may also be more conducive
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Surface high pressure will finally bring some dry air into the
northeast half of the region today. This will limit scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the southwest half of the
region. A weak upper low currently over Arkansas will begin to
lift north late today and tonight. This could help keep some
convection going into the evening and then again late tonight,
mainly over southeast Missouri.
The weekend is trending wetter for the entire Quad State as the
upper low lifts north and then east across the region. Coverage
will be greatest over southeast Missouri Saturday and then east
of the Mississippi Saturday night and Sunday. There will be some
southwest flow aloft Sunday, but the shear will still be rather
weak. A stray strong storm with gusty winds cannot be ruled out,
but the primary concerns through the weekend will continue to be
locally heavy rainfall and lightning.
The strong upper ridge will build over the Plains and Rockies
Monday through Wednesday. This will result in a dirty northwest
flow over Quad State for the entire work week. The GFS and ECMWF
ensembles continue to indicate highly anomalous low-level
moisture over the Quad State through the work week, which will
either contribute to extreme heat and humidity, or support a
parade of MCSs with a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat.
In the absence of clouds and precipitation, high temperatures
will max out in the middle 90s Wednesday and Thursday. With
dewpoints in the middle 70s, heat indices will climb up near 105
degrees both days. A Heat Advisory may be needed.
There are signs by next Friday that an upper trough may settle
over the Quad State as the upper high builds farther to the
west. This could bring an end to the heat and humidity and MCS
potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Surface high pressure is trying to build into the northern
portion of the region and should keep fog from developing at the
northern sites. Any convection should also stay south of those
sites Friday. Farther south fog development is likely, but not
sure it will be dense or not. Went down to IFR levels at KCGI
and KPAH. Also went with VCTS at those two sites through the
afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 2:54 AM CDT---------------
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