IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:15 PM EDT259
FXUS63 KIWX 221815
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) during
the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday.
- Increased coverage of showers and storms (30-70% chance)
Tuesday night through Wednesday.
- Dry with pleasant temperatures thereafter through at least
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
A stacked upper-level low is swirling overhead as of midday. While
water vapor indicates a primary moisture axis across the Ohio River
valley, dew points in the mid-60s locally could be enough for
isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon when paired
with the aformentioned disturbance. This activity will abate by, or
soon after, sunset with a loss of daytime heating.
Generally a repeat performance during the daytime hours Tuesday,
though toward the Indiana-Michigan state line the chance for showers
and storms increases toward sunset as a trough (and cold front) drop
in from northern Minnesota. The cold-front's arrival time after
sunset works to diminish any severe weather risk, through bulk shear
and lapse rates within forecast soundings was marginal to begin
with. Because the upper-low aloft begins to wrap-up, forward
progress slows and the front lingers over the area into
Wednesday. Thus, POPs will be highest Tuesday night through
Wednesday.
The front departs early Wednesday night and high pressure moves in
Thursday through at least Saturday. Temperatures will trend warmer
by the end of the weekend as well as a strong ridge moves over the
eastern US. With it, Gulf moisture advection improves brining and
increased chance of scattered showers and storms by the start of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
There are more clouds around today than there have been in
previous days due to an increase in moisture from an weak upper
level shortwave. There is an isolated chance (20% or less) for a
shower or storm this afternoon, but confidence is so low precise
location/timing that I opted to leave it out of the TAFs. VFR
ceilings of 5 to 6 kft will prevail this evening with lights
winds and some patchy fog possible tomorrow morning.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:15 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
