MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 6:39 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...433
FXUS64 KMOB 221139
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
VFR conditions prevail outside of widespread showers and storms
today. Similar to the past few days, expect brief reductions in
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR or IFR levels, in addition to
strong and variable wind gusts, near any storms throughout the TAF
cycle. Storms will decrease in coverage this evening, but should
re-develop along the coast overnight and into the pre-dawn hours
on Tuesday. 07/mb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Still not a lot of change expected in the weather pattern during the
near term period. A weak and broad upper trough remains draped
across the south central US, providing our local region with a light
southwesterly flow aloft. Weak, embedded shortwaves will continue
to periodically move within this flow aloft through the period. At
the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled across portions
of the southeast states on Monday, extending from the Tennessee
River Valley and across Mississippi, but then lifting slightly to
the north away from our area on Tuesday. Additionally, a ridge axis
associated with high pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend
westward into the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, helping to
provide us with a light and persistent onshore (south to
southwesterly) flow.
With this setup, a deep layer south to southwesterly flow will
continue to usher in precipitable water values of 2 to 2.25 inches
into our area. Therefore, we will continue to generally see the same
diurnal coverage of storms that we have seen over the past several
days. Storms will start off along the coast and offshore during the
early morning hours with better storm coverage spreading inland
through the afternoon hours. Showers and storms will be scattered
to locally numerous across much of the area by Monday afternoon.
Given the tropical airmass, the storms will be very efficient rain
producers and localized minor flooding will be possible, especially
over urban/poor drainage areas and areas where training (and
generally slow moving) cells develop.
Daytime highs will continue to be near or slightly below normal due
to the high rain chances and associated cloud cover. Highs on Monday
should be in the mid to upper 80s, and then in the upper 80s to
around 90 on Tuesday. Lows Monday tonight will range from the low
70s inland to the mid to upper 70s closer to and along the coast.
DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Not much has changed with the extended forecast as the unsettled,
wet pattern persists into next weekend.
A general southerly flow aloft is expected through the week as the
local area remains sandwiched between a ridge to our east and a
lingering shortwave trough to our west. The western Atlantic ridge
builds toward the area late in the week and slides into the
Southeast and eastern Gulf Friday through the weekend. Guidance
continues to highlight the potential for a broad upper low/inverted
trough to drift into the southern Gulf around the southern periphery
of the ridge over weekend. Meanwhile, down at the surface, the local
area remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with
onshore flow expected throughout the week. Deep southerly flow will
continue to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs of
2.0+ inches.
In general, expect the typical diurnal pattern in convection with
showers and storms flaring up along the coast and nearshore waters
in the pre-dawn hours and re-development each afternoon across
inland communities. With ridging becoming more dominant over the
region late in the week and into next weekend, afternoon rain
chances should dip back toward what we normally see in the summer
months. Storms will be efficient rainmakers, so the predominant
threat will be nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where
storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Can't rule out a
few strong pulse-type storms in the afternoon hours with gusty
winds and frequent lightning.
Temperatures through the end of the week continue to run several
degrees below normal given the rain and increased cloud cover each
day. As the ridge nears the area over the weekend, temperatures
begin to creep up toward climo for this time of year and heat
indices rise to near Advisory criteria.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week
with an increase to MODERATE on Thursday and Friday for the coastal
Alabama and Florida panhandle beaches. The rip current MOS
probabilities continue to indicate that the risk will remain
MODERATE through at least the early part of next weekend. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
continue through next week. There will be a chance of thunderstorms
each day, mainly during the late night and early morning hours,
with favorable conditions for waterspouts also possible each
morning as well. Winds and seas will be locally higher near
thunderstorms. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 73 90 74 87 72 87 73 / 80 40 70 50 70 50 70 40
Pensacola 88 78 90 77 88 76 88 76 / 60 30 60 50 70 60 70 50
Destin 89 79 90 79 89 78 88 78 / 60 30 50 50 70 60 70 50
Evergreen 89 71 91 71 89 70 87 70 / 70 40 70 40 80 50 70 30
Waynesboro 89 71 89 70 86 69 86 70 / 80 40 80 50 80 50 70 30
Camden 86 70 90 70 87 69 84 70 / 70 50 60 40 80 50 70 30
Crestview 91 73 93 73 90 73 89 72 / 70 30 70 40 70 60 70 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 6:39 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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