BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 11:01 AM EDT925
FXUS61 KBOX 211501
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1101 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable and mainly dry to round out the weekend, although a spot
shower or thunderstorm remains possible this afternoon.
The pattern turns more active again next week with increasing
humidity and periods of wet weather with heavy rain possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 am - No changes to the forecast, as the previous issuance
remains on track. See previous discussion below.
--------------------------------------------------------------
3 am Update:
Showers over southeast MA and coastal RI have held on a bit
longer than expected, so POPs have been increased for the next
few hours...thinking rain exits by 9am. Beyond that, the
weekend closes out with more sun and mostly dry weather thanks
to rising mid level heights and less synoptic lift. While we'll
start with a marginally drier airmass, the only wrinkle will be
an approaching cold front which drops through southern New
England during the day offering a bit of mesoscale forcing for
ascent which could be enough to create a pop up shower or
thunderstorm. However, the vast majority of the region will see
dry and sunny conditions with more humidity early on than in the
afternoon (save for perhaps the south coast where the front
stalls out). With a similar airmass overhead compared to
yesterday but more sun, expect temperatures to be a few degrees
warmer, in the upper 80s to near 90F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Any showers that may have formed in the afternoon should die down
with the loss of diurnal heating after sunset and diurnal cloudcover
will diminish as well. However at the same time high clouds will be
moving in ahead of our next bout of unsettled weather toward
Tuesday. Monday will stay dry, though, as surface high pressure
builds overhead. This also means light winds and seabreezes along
the coast which will keep temps there in the upper 70s while areas
further inland reach the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points
* Seasonable temps with increasing humidity next week.
* Unsettled weather pattern returns with daily chances for heavy
rain and thunderstorms through Friday
* Excessive heat and humidity looks to return for next weekend.
A more active pattern will set in again this week as deep SW flow
aloft kicks back in bringing increased moisture and humidity.
Temperatures this time wont be nearly as hot due to thick cloud
cover much of the week. Highs look to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
through Friday. Dewpoints on the other hand will rise into the upper
60s to mid 70s again for much of the week.
As for rain chances this week, exact timing of these features
remains messy with several weak shortwaves traversing through the SW
flow. PWATS starting tuesday increase upwards of 1.5 to 2.0+ inches.
With several rounds of rain possible this week, and very high PWATS,
excessive rain and flash flooding could become a concern. WPC has
highlighted much of New England in a marginal risk for excessive
rain on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Ensemble QPF through
Friday is 40-70% chances for 1 inch of rain, with a 10-20% chance
for 2 inches of rain. Will also need to watch for severe weather in
this time period with CSU machine learning guidance showing 5% probs
for severe thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.
Looking way ahead to next weekend, the pattern appears to bring back
drier conditions with an upper level ridge building in and 850mb
temps jumping to +18C. This could bring back excessive heat concerns
with highs possibly jumping back into the 90s, and dewpoints staying
near the 70s. CPC's 6-10 day outlooks highlights much of SNE with a
high probability for above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z update...
Today... High Confidence.
VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots, although Cape Cod and
Islands are southwest 10 to 15 knots and a sea breeze for eastern
coastal Massachusetts.
Tonight... High Confidence.
VFR and dry. Light north wind.
Monday...High confidence.
VFR. Light E winds becoming S.
KBOS TAF... High Confidence in TAF. VFR through the TAF period a
sea breeze has developed and continues through 00z/02z, then
wind direction becomes SSW.
KBDL TAF... High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR
possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tonight... High confidence.
A weak are of low pressure exits the coast of the Mid Atlantic and
moves well south of southern New England through today. A weak
cold front moves from north to south reaching the waters this
evening. Spot shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question
but majority of this time is dry. Seas 2-3 feet.
Monday...High confidence.
E winds becoming S 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 feet.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW/Dooley
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 11:01 AM EDT----------------
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