MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:54 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...085
FXUS64 KMOB 211154
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
VFR conditions prevail outside of numerous showers and storms
today. Expect brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities to
MVFR or IFR levels, in addition to strong and variable wind
gusts, near any storms throughout the TAF cycle. Storms will
decrease in coverage by this evening, but should re-develop along
the coast again overnight and into the pre-dawn hours on Monday.
07/mb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Not much of a change in the weather pattern is expected in the near
term period. Light southwesterly flow aloft will continue as a weak,
but broad, upper trough remains draped across the south central
CONUS. Weak shortwaves embedded within this flow aloft will
continue to periodically move across the area through the period as
well, although timing of these weak features is difficult to nail
down. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain stalled across
parts of the South, generally extending from the Tennessee Valley
Region southwestward across northern portions of Mississippi.
Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure centered
over the Atlantic continues to extend westward into the Gulf of
Mexico and Gulf coast region. This will continue to provide us with
a light and persistent onshore flow through the period.
With this pattern the onshore flow noted earlier, both at the
surface and aloft, will continue to allow for deep moisture (with
PWATs greater than 2 inches) to advect into the local region through
Monday. This, combined with forcing from the nearby surface front
and shortwave energy aloft, will allow for at least scattered to
numerous (maybe even occasionally widespread) showers and storms to
develop across the local area each day through the period.
Convective coverage will likely generally follow a typical diurnal
pattern, with showers and storms developing along coastal counties
and offshore during the overnight and early morning hours, followed
by coverage spreading inland by the afternoon and early evening
hours. Convective coverages will generally be greatest during the
peak heating hours of late afternoon into early evening. It likely
won't rain at any one location for long periods of time, but much of
the area will see rain at one time or another. Not expecting any
organized severe weather with this activity due to a lack of shear,
although a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds to
around 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Some storms may also produce
heavy rainfall (given the deep moisture in place) which could be
capable of producing localized flooding concerns, primarily over
urban/poor drainage areas.
Highs on Sunday will again only reach the upper 80s due to the
expected rainfall and extensive cloud cover present. Lows Sunday
night will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s
along the coast. On Monday, look for high temperatures to again be
mainly in the upper 80s. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
The unsettled weather pattern persists through Thursday before rain
chances return to a more typical summertime pattern.
Ridging aloft over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the
eastern Gulf and Southeast through mid-week. A shortwave trough
remains draped across the Plains as a ridge builds into the Desert
Southwest early in the week. The diffuse shortwave lingers west of
our area as the western Atlantic ridge builds toward the Southeast
in the middle to latter part of the week. We maintain onshore flow
aloft through Thursday as the local area remains sandwiched between
the ridge and general troughiness to our west. Guidance continues to
highlight the potential for a subtle inverted trough to drift into
the eastern Gulf around the southern periphery of the ridge in the
early to middle part of the week with another one on its heels late
in the week or early next weekend. We may see some additional
moisture advected into the region from the first feature (assuming
it materializes) by mid-week. Down at the surface, the local area
remains on the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge with onshore
flow expected throughout the week. Deep southerly flow will continue
to usher rich, Gulf moisture into the region with PWATs of 2.0+
inches. As the ridge noses deeper into the Southeast over the
weekend, moisture levels may begin to drop somewhat.
In general, expect the typical diurnal pattern in convection with
showers and storms flaring up along the coast and nearshore waters
in the pre-dawn hours and re-development each afternoon across
inland communities. The blended guidance for POPs continues to be
too high throughout the extended timeframe, so we continued the
trend of cutting the POPs down each afternoon to more reasonable
values (albeit still higher than what we traditionally see in the
summer months). As previously mentioned, ridging becomes more
dominant late in the week and into next weekend which equates to
rain chances dipping back toward what we normally see in the summer
months (i.e. scattered convection in the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze). Storms will be efficient rainmakers (quickly dropping 1-
2 inches of rain in a short period of time), so the predominant
threat will be nuisance/minor flooding, especially in area where
storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Also can't rule out
a few strong to potentially severe pulse-type storms in the
afternoon hours with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the
main threats.
Temperatures through the end of the week will generally be tempered
by the rain and increased cloud cover each day. Expect highs to be
several degrees below normal through Friday with heat indices well
below Advisory criteria. As the ridge nears the area over the
weekend, temperatures begin to creep up toward climatological values
for this time of year and heat indices rise to near Advisory criteria.
Beach Note: The risk for rip currents remains LOW through mid-week
while increasing to MODERATE on Thursday for the Florida panhandle
beaches. The rip current MOS probabilities have continued the trend
of a bump to MODERATE for the panhandle beaches late in the week.
07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
continue through next week. There will be a chance of thunderstorms
each day, with favorable conditions for waterspouts each morning.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near thunderstorms. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 88 74 88 74 88 73 86 73 / 80 50 80 40 80 50 80 40
Pensacola 88 76 88 77 89 76 88 76 / 70 60 70 40 70 50 80 50
Destin 89 79 89 79 90 78 88 78 / 70 60 70 40 60 50 70 50
Evergreen 88 71 88 70 88 70 87 71 / 80 50 80 40 70 50 80 40
Waynesboro 89 71 89 70 88 69 85 70 / 80 50 80 40 70 50 80 30
Camden 88 70 87 70 87 70 85 70 / 80 50 70 40 70 50 70 40
Crestview 90 73 90 72 91 71 90 73 / 70 50 80 30 70 40 80 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:54 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
