BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 2:08 PM EDT415
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
208 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeastward tonight into early on
Saturday. While this will bring a modest increase in cloud cover
for Saturday, dry weather, seasonably warm temperatures and
lower humidity levels are expected through the weekend. Pattern
then turns more active again next week, with humidity levels
also expected to rise.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 PM Update:
Beautiful midsummer afternoon underway across Southern New
England under surface ridge of high pressure. Current temps are
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s under full sunshine, but also
with low humidity levels (dewpoints commonly in the 50s).
High pressure will continue to be in control for tonight as
well. Will have more of an increase in high clouds with some
higher level moisture advecting in from the SW late tonight and
overnight but dry weather is expected. Used MOS for nighttime
lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s for most, with mid 60s for the
Cape and Islands and the urban corridors.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Update:
Saturday and Saturday Night:
High pressure to our south will bring a SWly flow to the region
for Saturday, with a passing cool front well to our north in
northern portions of VT/NH/ME for Saturday evening. The
increasing higher level cloud cover from tonight will continue
to increase further on Saturday as well, towards a filtered sun
or at worst a mix of clouds and sun. A few models were
generating some QPF in portions of western CT associated with a
low-amplitude 500 mb disturbance in the SW flow, one which is
also expected to shearing out and weaken; with drier air in the
lower atmosphere, opted for dry weather to prevail. Though cloud
cover decreases more into Saturday evening, still will be a
partly cloud evening. Dewpoints also start to rise back into the
mid 60s, so turning a touch more humid but nothing like we saw
for much of last week. Highs Saturday in the mid to mid/upper
80s (upper 70s to low 80s coasts), with lows in the mid 60s to
around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spread eastward into
SNE. This will leave the region with dry, sunny, and pleasant
conditions on Sunday. High temperatures climb into the upper 80s on
Sunday with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
A more active pattern looks to set in again next week as deep SW
flow aloft kicks back in bringing increased moisture and humidity.
Temperatures this time wont be nearly as hot with highs peaking in
the upper 80s Monday, then falling into the upper 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints on the other hand will rise into
the upper 60s to low 70s again Monday and stay there through the
week. As for rain chances this week, exact timing of features
remains messy with several weak shortwaves traversing through the SW
flow. Monday at this time appears the driest day with only isolated
thunderstorms possible. Not expecting any severe thunderstorms with
less then 500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
A stronger shortwave and associated surface low looks to exit the
Ohio River valley mid week. Guidance is in good agreement on timing
of this feature bringing it through late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, but disagreement on exact track of the low. PWATS ahead
of this low increase upwards of 2.0-2.2 inches which could spell
issues for excessive rain somewhere in New England depending on the
track of the low. Ensemble mean QPF at this time is showing a wide
spread 1/2 inch of rain, with 99th percentile showing localized
areas of 2 - 3 inches. Will also need to watch for severe weather in
this time period with CSU machine learning guidance showing 5% probs
for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Through 00z Saturday: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds around 4-7 kt, with SE seabreezes for BOS and
PVD.
Tonight through Saturday: High confidence.
VFR, with increasing mid to high clouds late tonight into
Saturday. Winds become light southerly early tonight in all
areas, with SW speeds Saturday daytime around 6-10 kt (gusts
17-20 kt Cape and Islands).
Saturday Night: High confidence, though moderate on fog
development.
VFR for most airports; PVD and the Cape and Islands could see
patchy fog develop with localized sub-VFR as moisture levels
rise the most here, but uncertain if it develops. SW winds
around 5 kt Saturday night.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR thru the period.
SE seabreezes to shift to light SW winds by 00z Sat, then
increasing to around 5-10 kt Sat.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR thru the period. NW winds
around 5 kt ease and shift to SW at similar speeds late this
afternoon into Sat.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
200 PM Update:
Through Saturday Night: High confidence.
Favorable boating conditions for mariners with light north winds
early tonight becoming a light southerly (speeds 10 kt or less).
Will turn a little breezy on Saturday especially over the
nearshore waters, with SW speeds around 15-20 kt during the
daytime hrs; decreasing to 10 kt or less Saturday evening. Seas
3 ft or less all waters. Dry weather to prevail, although there
is a low chance for patchy fog Saturday evening on the southern
waters.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BL
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/BL
MARINE...Loconto/BL
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 2:08 PM EDT----------------
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