PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 5:32 AM CDT410
FXUS63 KPAH 211032
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend;
however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
- Chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast through next Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
A weak surface trough is expected to linger nearby today, allowing a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop. Isolated to scattered
coverage is expected as an upper trough axis approaches from the
northwest; however, locations in SEMO into western KY will have the
greatest chances. Instability gets up to around 500-1000 J/kg this
afternoon, which will lead to the potential for thunderstorms and
heavy downpours; however, shear remain very weak, so severe weather
is not anticipated. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid
80s.
The overall pattern this week will be troughing over the eastern
CONUS with ridging across the west. That will keep the Quad State in
the trough with multiple disturbances making their way through the
area. Low-level moisture will gradually increase through the week as
temperatures edge up as well. The increased instability and added
moisture across the area will set the stage for scattered to
numerous showers and storms each day, with the greatest coverage
expected each afternoon through next Saturday. It still appears as
though the greatest chance for showers and storms next week will be
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Very little shear will be
in place, so not expecting any widespread severe weather potential;
however, the storms will likely be slow-moving, which will lead to a
localized heavy rainfall and limited flooding threat.
Temperatures will gradually increase; however, they are expected to
remain below normal in the low to mid 80s. For comparison, normal
high temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance. There may be
an isolated shower or storm this afternoon into this evening,
but the probability of this impacting the TAF sites is low
enough to leave out of the TAF with this update. The rest of
the week will see increasing chances for afternoon showers and
storms.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 5:32 AM CDT---------------
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