ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 2:03 PM EDT354
FXUS61 KILN 191803
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual
warming trend. More humid conditions will return next week along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry
conditions across the region. Some high clouds will mix with
some diurnal cumulus. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, upper 70s to the lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area
through the period. A weakening short wave will pass south of
the area. But northern edge of showers and thunderstorms
associated with this could extend into parts of northeastern
Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, continued dry with
relatively low dew points. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the
previous day once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period begins with weak/diffuse surface high
pressure across the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave trough
slowly moving from the northern Plains into the middle
Mississippi Valley. The high will keep relatively comfortable
dewpoints over our area through Sunday with low PoPs.
As we get into Monday, the high weakens further. This will
allow warmer and more humid conditions to start working to the
north accompanying light southerly flow ahead of the approaching
shortwave. We could start seeing a few isolated to scattered
showers and storms Monday afternoon as dewpoints lift into the
upper 60s and weak instability develops.
To close the period Tuesday through Thursday, guidance suggests
the mid-level shortwave will cause a surface wave to form and
lift northeast into the Ohio Valley. This provides enough
forcing for increasing coverage of showers and storms area-wide.
With H5 winds remaining below 40 knots in this blocky upper
pattern, expect organized severe storm threat to remain quite
low... typical for late July. However, with PWATs quite high
(another earmark of late July), can't rule out some localized
flood threat owing to slow- moving clusters of convection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the southern Great
Lakes through the TAF period. A mix of mainly SCT diurnal
cumulus and SCT-BKN cirrus can be expected. There could be a
little bit of MVFR mist at KLUK late tonight. Winds will vary
between northeast and north between 5 and 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 2:03 PM EDT---------------
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