PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:47 PM EDT606
FXUS61 KPBZ 171747
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a crossing
front followed by dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front
crossing over the course of the day.
- There is a conditional risk of severe storms with the primary
threat being wind.
- Noticeably cooler daytime high temperatures.
__________________________________________________________________
With the mid morning update, did expand PoP coverage to likely
based on radar coverage and expansion with guidance from the
latest CAMs. Front is starting to make it's approach with it
stretching along the NW border of the CWA. An uptick in
convection has been noted, taking advantage of the surface
instability that is available; approx 1500j/kg based on the
latest mesoanalysis. With the modest instability and shear that
is available, SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk to now include
much of the forecast area. While the frontal passage should be
rather progressive, convective development may train until the
upper trough pivots closer to the lower Great Lakes. With PWAT
values around 1.8 inches, brief heavy downpours and some
localized flooding issues may be possible.
Cloud coverage and timing of FROPA will play a big factor in
daytime highs, but overall, it will be a noticeably cooler day
across the region (10+ degrees F cooler).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry. cool conditions Thursday and Friday.
_________________________________________________________________
Building high pressure out of the west will result in dry
conditions across the region. Low- level cold and dry advection
will keep temperatures near or even a few degrees below average
Thursday and Thursday night with valley fog chances.
Stout mixing into the day on Friday under high pressure will
result in temperatures near normal, and fairly low humidity.
This will leave the area feeling comfortable for the last day of
the work-week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weekend with high pressure in control.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Rising heights Saturday/Sunday in response to increased
troughing over the Central Plains may bring moisture back from
the south, but at this time precipitation chances are limited
to the ridges south and east of PGH. With rising heights,
temperatures will trend higher to slightly above normal.
Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
ahead of a cold front which is slowly creeping southeastward
through the area. A mix of VFR/MVFR cu should slowly lift to
more widespread VFR by late afternoon with additional heating
and mixing occurring, though locally lower cigs/vis can still be
expected in and around the heavier showers and storms. The weak
front pushes through by roughly 03Z, followed likely by a
stratocu deck with VFR cigs except along the higher terrain east
and southeast of LBE/MGW where low cigs/vis may linger through
Thursday morning under weak upslope flow. VFR is expected by
Thursday afternoon as cooler and drier air moves into the area
behind the front.
Generally light southwest winds this afternoon ahead of the
front become light and variable overnight, then northwesterly on
Thursday in the wake of the cold front. So far, gusts in storms
have remained weak, around 20 knots, though these could
increase to 30-40 knots in late afternoon and evening as
additional heating and better lift along the front itself
support deeper convection.
.Outlook...
VFR is expected Thursday through Sunday under building high
pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...34/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:47 PM EDT---------------
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