PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 11:32 AM EDT638
FXUS61 KPBZ 171532
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1132 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a crossing
front followed by dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front
crossing over the course of the day.
- There is a conditional risk of severe storms with the primary
threat being wind.
- Noticeably cooler daytime high temperatures.
__________________________________________________________________
With the mid morning update, did expand PoP coverage to likely
based on radar coverage and expansion with guidance from the
latest CAMs. Front is starting to make it's approach with it
stretching along the NW border of the CWA. An uptick in
convection has been noted, taking advantage of the surface
instability that is available; approx 1500j/kg based on the
latest mesoanalysis. With the modest instability and shear that
is available, SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk to now include
much of the forecast area. While the frontal passage should be
rather progressive, convective development may train until the
upper trough pivots closer to the lower Great Lakes. With PWAT
values around 1.8 inches, brief heavy downpours and some
localized flooding issues may be possible.
Cloud coverage and timing of FROPA will play a big factor in
daytime highs, but overall, it will be a noticeably cooler day
across the region (10+ degrees F cooler).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry. cool conditions Thursday and Friday.
_________________________________________________________________
Building high pressure out of the west will result in dry
conditions across the region. Low- level cold and dry advection
will keep temperatures near or even a few degrees below average
Thursday and Thursday night with valley fog chances.
Stout mixing into the day on Friday under high pressure will
result in temperatures near normal, and fairly low humidity.
This will leave the area feeling comfortable for the last day of
the work-week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weekend with high pressure in control.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Rising heights Saturday/Sunday in response to increased
troughing over the Central Plains may bring moisture back from
the south, but at this time precipitation chances are limited
to the ridges south and east of PGH. With rising heights,
temperatures will trend higher to slightly above normal.
Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front
approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Increasing ascent ahead of an approaching cold front should
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
through this morning. MVFR cigs are ongoing at FKL and DUJ with
moisture pooling closer to the front. Maintained VCSH in the
TAFs with coverage and timing of showers uncertain.
The cold front is expected to track southeastward across the
area this afternoon/early evening. Increasing diurnal
instability ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorms developing along the front. Maintained VCTS for
scattered activity ahead of the front tempos for the FROPA
itself. A wind shift to the northwest and VFR stratocu layer
are expected after FROPA this evening. Hi-res ensembles suggest
low cigs/vis building into the higher elevations and adjacent
lowlands southeast of Pittsburgh overnight through roughly 13Z,
with roughly 40-60% chance for MVFR during that window.
.Outlook...
VFR is expected Thursday through Sunday under building high
pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...34/88
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Cermak/WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 11:32 AM EDT---------------
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