LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:03 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...734
FXUS63 KLMK 181103
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early
next week. Shower and storm chances also return in that time
frame.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
An upper trough parked over the eastern Great Lakes is directing a
large surface high through the Midwest towards the Lower Ohio
Valley. This is causing northern winds on the eastern side of the
high to work into and across southern Indiana and central Kentucky,
pushing moisture south out of Kentucky.
Currently, showers with some isolated thunder remain over southern
Kentucky from near Bowling Green east through the Lake Cumberland
region. Precipitable water values in this area climb to around 2",
but as drier air pushes in from the north, these values will drop to
near an 1" this afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation.
Today, clouds will begin clearing from the northwest with most of
the CWA clear by this afternoon. Northerly winds will bring cold air
advection and drier air to region. Highs are expected to only reach
into the low to mid 80s. Some areas in southern Indiana may only see
the upper 70s. Dew points that were in the 70s yesterday will drop
into the mid 50s to mid 60s, remaining a little more moist in
southern Kentucky.
Tonight, winds will ease, but they will shift towards the northeast
as the surface high nears. Cooler nightly temperatures return as
lows drop into the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
Friday - Sunday Night...
Interesting upper pattern for the weekend and into next week as
troughing will envelop eastern Canada, with a baggy trough axis
extending back through the upper Midwest and into the mid
Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the western
Atlantic will hold in place. Our region will generally stay
positioned between these two features, which allows a pretty
continuous feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming from the
coastal states up through the Appalachian spine. In addition, this
deep moisture will generally orient along a nearly stationary
baroclinic zone. The end result will be repeated rounds of showers of
storms, likely with some heavy rainfall at times, along an axis
likely to the SE of our CWA. Do expect that portions of our CWA will
have to hold onto shower and storm chances through the weekend,
especially across southern and eastern KY closest to the baroclinic
zone and deep moisture feed. Farther north, the rest of our CWA
should be mostly dry through the weekend, with surface high pressure
centered just to our north. Friday stands the best shot at being dry
for everyone, even our SE. Meanwhile, pops creep NW and will carry
at least a slight chance up to along the Ohio River by Sunday. Best
chances will still be down around Lake Cumberland where they will be
likely by Sunday.
After Friday temps in the low to mid 80s, look for slightly warmer
readings in the mid to upper 80s the remainder of the weekend.
Monday - Wednesday...
The same general upper pattern holds into early to middle of next
week, however the upper trough axis will be a little closer to our
region, and another reinforcing shortwave digs through the parent
trough axis. As a result, more of a trigger will be present in
conjunction with the continuous deep moisture feed extending from the
Gulf Coast states up through the Appalachian spine. This should
allow for rounds of showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall
a legitimate concern. The more prolonged this pattern is, the more
possibility for rainfall totals to add up in spots and begin to
produce wider concerns about flash flooding. Still looks like the
heaviest rain will fall to our south and east of the CWA, but wory
we could get in on more of the action, especially by mid week. Will
carry scattered to numerous coverage just about every day, with high
temperatures staying in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024
VFR conditions are expected to remain through the forecast period.
The last of the precipitation is currently exiting central Kentucky.
Skies are clearing from the northwest to southeast. HNB is already
in the clear, and in the coming hours the other forecast sites will
clear. With surface high pressure sitting to our northwest, surface
winds will remain out of a general northerly direction. A could
gusts later this afternoon could reach into the 18-20 knot range,
believe this is most likely at SDF.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:03 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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