JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:45 PM EST975
FXUS63 KJKL 102045
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low
temperatures for valley locations continue into mid-week.
- Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday
as a developing weather system crosses the area and then
strengthens to our east.
- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much
colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
Latest analysis shows clear to mostly clear skies across the area
with temperatures reaching well into the 60s and 70s for highs. High
pressure is in place across the Commonwealth, which will lead to
tranquil weather tonight into Wednesday. Strong ridge-valley splits
are expected again overnight due to high pressure overhead and light
winds at the surface. Temperatures are expected to drop off into the
40s for ridgetops and the 30s for the more sheltered valley
locations. Patchy fog is possible in the river valleys, but is
expected to diminish after daybreak on Wednesday. Temperatures will
be seasonable on Wednesday, with daytime highs in the 60s.
A more active weather pattern sets up late Wednesday as an
upper-level trough over the Northern Plains digs southeastward
through the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will support an
area of low pressure and an associated cold front tracking across
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday night. This will bring widespread cloud
cover and the potential for scattered to numerous showers. Given the
modest mid-level lapse rates and instability up to 500 J/kg of
MUCAPE, a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out (mainly in
the Lake Cumberland area). There could also be gusty winds with the
heavier bands of showers.
As the storm system departs eastward, a secondary cold front will
sag southeastward toward eastern Kentucky early on Thursday. This
will bring another opportunity for rain showers and lead to a sharp
drop in temperatures going into the long-term forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
At the start of the long term period, midlevel troughing will be
located over the eastern CONUS, with amplified midlevel ridging
over the Intermountain West and High Plains. Farther west, two
closed lows will be located off the Pacific Coast: one near
British Columbia, and another off the coast of California. Closer
to eastern Kentucky, multiple shortwaves will be embedded within
the eastern CONUS trough, with the first shortwave on the eastern
fringes of the forecast area on Thursday morning. At the surface,
an area of low pressure associated with this feature will be
located in the Mid Atlantic region, with a secondary cold front
initially just to our north. This front will progress through
eastern Kentucky during the day on Thursday, with winds becoming
more northwesterly as the front passes. Associated CAA will keep
temperatures below average throughout the day. Thus, expect a non-
diurnal temperature curve during the day on Thursday, with highs
occurring in the morning for most locations (generally in the low
50s), although with the caveat that some frontal timing
discrepancies still exist within deterministic guidance.
More interestingly, this system could bring the first snowflakes
of the season to eastern Kentucky. Rain will be likely during the
day on Thursday as temperatures remain fairly warm (in the 40s and
50s for all but the highest elevations). Multiple shortwaves
should provide ample lift for precipitation on Thursday and
Friday, and upslope flow via northwesterly post-frontal winds
should also enhance these chances, particularly given the
deterministic model signal for this flow to interact with a
moisture plume originating from Lake Michigan. Given this
favorable setup, PoPs were manually increased from the NBM
baseline, with the greatest PoPs in the high terrain of
southeastern Kentucky. By Friday morning, cooler air aloft could
support the transition to a mixture of rain and snow for much of
the forecast area, although with relatively warm surface
temperatures, rain should still be the primary precipitation type
in most locations, except in the highest terrain. Some winter
precipitation could linger in far eastern Kentucky on Saturday,
although PoPs should decline beyond this point as heights rise and
a drier pattern sets in.
A calmer pattern will return by Sunday, with tranquil weather
expected through the remainder of the period. Aloft, the ridge
initially over the Intermountain West will shift east as the
aforementioned Pacific systems move onshore, with the original
deep trough now east of the forecast area. Thus, at the surface,
high pressure will set in, with dry and uneventful weather
expected. High temperatures will trend warmer under the influence
of aforementioned height rises, though winds will still maintain a
light northerly component around the surface high, keeping maxTs
near to slightly below average for this time of year despite ample
sunshine. Overnight, lows will be cool, falling into the 20s in
many valley locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain in place across the area
through the period resulting in mainly VFR conditions. Valley fog
could affect locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and
lakes during the overnight hours, with MVFR to localized IFR, or
worse, conditions. This is not expected to affect any of the TAF
sites. High clouds will move in ahead of a frontal system towards
the end of the TAF period. Winds will be less than 10 kts - generally
out of the southwest and west.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON/HORTON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HORTON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 3:45 PM EST---------------
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