CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 2:49 PM EST261
FXUS61 KCLE 091949
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
249 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through midweek.
2) Cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. While snow may
mix in at times starting Friday, impactful accumulations are rather
unlikely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure will continue to largely influence the
forecast through the first half of this week. Low pressure tracking
east across Ontario into Quebec will drag a cold front across the
region on Tuesday. Not anticipating any rain chances with this cold
front. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s for
most, low to mid 30s for inland locations in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Mild tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s across the region. Cooler again on Tuesday night with lows
in the low to mid 30s, upper 30s closer to the lakeshore.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Dry and mild conditions will come to an end Wednesday into Thursday
as a large upper trough and embedded shortwaves move into the
eastern CONUS. Precipitation chances increase Wednesday afternoon
onward as surface low pressure pushes eastward into the Lower Ohio
Valley from the Central Plains. Precipitation type will initially
begin as rain Wednesday night into Thursday. With the introduction
of cooler air aloft (850mb temperatures dipping between -4 and -7C
by Thursday night), there is the potential for some wet snow flakes
to mix in with rain Thursday night into Friday.
The low will exit to the east and introduce steady northerly flow
coupled with plenty of low level moisture and additional shortwaves
aloft. This will bring a prolonged period of lake effect rain/snow
showers downwind of the lakes Friday into the weekend. Overall, snow
accumulations look minimal and confined to higher elevation
locations across Northwest Pennsylvania. An area of high pressure
will move overhead from the west, but lake effect showers will
likely continue into early next week as low level moisture will be
slow to decrease.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Lake effect clouds linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania through this evening, with periodic MVFR ceilings
possible at KERI over the next several hours. Once clouds
dissipate, VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF
period with occasional upper-level cirrus.
Northwest winds of 6-10 knots gradually dissipate to around 5
knots by late this evening. Winds quickly become southwest
shortly after sunset following the passage of a warm front,
gradually increasing to around 6-10 knots. A cold front swings
through during the day Tuesday, with winds becoming westerly and
then nearly northwest by Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely with low stratus ceilings and
periods of rain showers Wednesday night through Saturday. Some
wet snow showers may also be possible late week along with gusty
winds up to 35 mph.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds will continue to diminish through this evening
as high pressure builds overhead. Wave heights remain elevated
offshore Erie County, PA so extended the Small Craft Advisory
until 7 PM this evening. There will be a brief window this
evening and overnight of sub-advisory winds and waves before
southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots early Tuesday as a
cold front moves east across the lake. Wave heights will build
to 3-6 feet across the central and eastern basin nearshore zones
by Tuesday morning. Another set of small craft advisories will
be needed for Tuesday. Winds and waves will fall below small
craft criteria by late Tuesday night with light and variable
flow over the lake anticipated for Wednesday.
Next round of rough conditions on the lake will come Thursday
and Friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a
strong low pressure system crosses south of Lake Erie across the
Lower Ohio Valley. Additional marine headlines will be needed
for this late week system with a non-zero chance of a brief
period of gale force winds possible.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 2:49 PM EST---------------
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