PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 2:49 AM EST214
FXUS61 KPBZ 090749
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
249 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind Advisory continues for eastern Tucker. Additional
information on the approaching front for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and ridgetops winds with a passing disturbance
tonight; warming trend through mid-week.
2) Rain and snow potential increase late-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As a cold front will continue to move through the OH Valley this
morning and into the coming day, expect some lingering showers
over the northern counties. With a bit of instability and colder
temperatures, an instance or two of graupel is possible.
High pressure is expected to nudge into the region later today.
This will begin to usher in some warmer air. In addition, the
approaching low pressure system from the west will increase the
gradient and is expected to allow for warmer temperatures
through midweek.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A closed low will cross the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley
Thursday morning and into the coming day. The low center is
expected to dive into the Lower OH Valley with rain expected on
Thursday and frontal passage by 06Z Friday with rain changing to
snow behind the front. There are some scenarios due to certain
variables in the ensembles, including a no-snow solution. By
Thursday into Friday, most scenarios fall into 3 camps:
1) Weak and eastern trough axis. These scenarios are
considerably drier with the trough mostly passing as a
shortwave, leading to little rain accumulation and no snow
accumulation. Temperatures are "warmer than the ensemble mean"
but highs still dip into the 40s late week.
2) Deeper, northeast trough axis. This brings more rain and even
some snow (most likely for high terrain).This is primarily
focused Thursday into Friday.
3) Deeper, midwest trough axis. This also bring more rain and
perhaps some snow, but peak accumulations are delayed by 18 to
24 hours, mostly on Friday into Saturday.
Scenarios 2/3 show the potential for "at least" advisory level
snow in the high terrain of West Virginia, with the terrain of
Pennsylvania more marginal. Chances of any snow accumulation in
the Pittsburgh metro are still low. There is only a 20% chance
of any accumulation, and a <5% chance of an inch.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A passing cold front will bring some isolated showers to the
area through midday tomorrow. This will mainly be with the
northern counties and mainly FKL and DUJ. This will result in
some MVFR cigs and a TEMPO group was used to highlight this.
Skies will then begin to improve throughout the coming day.
Winds will mainly be out of the west with some gusts reaching up
to 25 knots.
Outlook...
High pressure settles back in later on Monday and is expected to
return VFR to area ports until our next system climbs through
the Ohio Valley on Thursday returning rain chances.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Milcarek/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 2:49 AM EST---------------
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