JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 2:44 AM EST300
FXUS63 KJKL 070744
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region,
and will persist well into next week.
- Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also
possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in
the mornings on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
Aloft, eastern Kentucky continues to reside on the southern and
southwestern periphery of a compact yet deep upper low moving east
from the Lower Great Lakes to the Northeast US today. Low-amplitude
shortwave ridging moves across the area tonight into early Sunday,
with a strong cyclonically-curved jet stream and shortwave moving
through the Great Lakes region Sunday. Eastern Kentucky will lie
along the southern periphery of this northwesterly flow Sunday.
At the surface, cold advection continues through today with
northwesterly surface winds backing with height. The surface ridge
axis settles over the area tonight, yielding calm winds and neutral
advection. Light west to west-southwesterly winds and neutral to
weak warm advection develop Sunday in response to the strong
shortwave and jet streak moving through the Great Lakes region.
As for weather and its impacts, continued cold advection through
this afternoon will result in a cool day, with below-normal highs
only reaching the 50s for the vast majority of locations. Scattered
to possibly broken cumulus will be possible especially towards the
West Virginia border, but also potentially along the windward side
of the Cumberland Mountains.
Mid and high clouds will stream across southern and southeastern
Kentucky tonight ahead of a passing upper tropospheric disturbance,
while low-level conditions will be supportive of at least sufficient
radiational cooling to warrant the issuance of Freeze Warnings
across all of eastern Kentucky, with low-lying locations and valleys
the most likely locations to see near-freezing to sub-freezing
conditions, though there is some uncertainty to the forecast due to
the potential for cloud cover and how quickly clearing occurs after
midnight. Current forecast lows range from the upper 20s to mid to
upper 30s.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies Sunday and neutral to weak warm
advection will allow for daytime high temperatures to start an
upward trend, with mid to upper 50s north to lower to mid 60s
elsewhere, which is near normal for highs this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 610 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
The longwave pattern will be amplifying through the extended
forecast period. A parade of northern stream energy will maintain
broader cyclonic flow over southeastern Canada and New England
into early next week. A deep trough will then be nearing the West
Coast from the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week.
This allows for sharper ridging to take shape across the
Continental Divide, with an expansive and deep trough evolving
east of the Plains, bringing well below normal temperatures to
most locations east of the Mississippi River after Wednesday.
Drier weather will hold on through Wednesday, with temperatures
gradually moderating through Tuesday. Overnight lows will average
around 30 degrees in our most sheltered valleys Sunday night,
given the clear skies and light winds in place. The blended
guidance continues to be bullish with the lows west of I-75, but
modifications were made to align more with the COOP MOS trends and
what we typically see, given this pattern. Highs will be
moderating from the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, to mid and
upper 60s by Tuesday. Lows will also follow suit, with widening
ridge/valley splits heading into Wednesday morning. A cold front
will pass through Wednesday into Wednesday night, but moisture
looks limited, so mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected.
As 500 mb heights lower across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
through Friday, some bouts of moisture in low level northwest flow
may allow for some light shower activity at times.
Temperatures will be the bigger story, with highs retreating to
the lower and middle 50s by Friday. While confidence is lower on
the details this far out, whatever locations that miss out on the
freezing temperatures this weekend, will likely not be able to
avoid seeing freezing temperatures by next weekend or perhaps just
beyond if model trends hold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings were across much of the central and
southern portions of the forecast area at the 06Z TAF issuance.
Ceilings are forecast to break up from north to south during the
night, with ceilings dissipating area wide through 12z. Assuming
clouds do dry up, localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition
should develop again, but it's not expected to impact TAF sites.
VFR conditions are expected to return areawide late in the
morning and last through the end of the period. North to northwest
winds at less than 10 kts are expected until around 00z Sunday
before becoming light and variable through the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 2:44 AM EST---------------
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