JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:13 AM EST839
FXUS63 KJKL 070613
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
113 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder and drier air will arrive as we move into the weekend,
and persist well into next week.
- Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also
possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in
the mornings on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 439 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
Another cold front moved into the forecast area from the
northwest today, but it lost definition along the way. The end
result has been continued cold air advection with steepening low
level lapse rates, which is supporting the extensive low clouds
which have developed (along with a bit of drizzle or sprinkles).
The front and the cold air advection is supported by a potent
upper low moving slowly southeast over the Great Lakes.
The initial band of clouds with the cold air advection is breaking
up over southern IN and southern OH. Models are bringing this
clearing southeast into KY tonight, but the question remains as to
what reality brings. Low level temperature advection is expected
to go near neutral or slightly warm by morning with light
anticyclonic flow returning, which would support decreasing
clouds, even though we tend to be notoriously slow to clear behind
cold fronts in the cold season. Based on forecast clearing and the
air mass which is arriving, the frost advisory was expanded
slightly southeastward for late tonight/Saturday morning.
The upper low will head east and begin to depart on Saturday and
Saturday night, as surface high pressure moves toward us from the
west. This will bring a return of sunshine followed by a mainly
clear night. This will set us up for a colder night with frost a
good bet for most places, and possibly freezing temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 610 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
The long wave pattern will be amplifying through the extended
forecast period. A parade of northern stream energy will maintain
broader cyclonic flow over southeastern Canada and New England
into early next week. A deep trough will then be nearing the West
Coast from the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week.
This allows for sharper ridging to take shape across the
Continental Divide, with an expansive and deep trough evolving
east of the Plains, bringing well below normal temperatures to
most locations east of the Mississippi River after Wednesday.
Drier weather will hold on through Wednesday, with temperatures
gradually moderating through Tuesday. Overnight lows will average
around 30 degrees in our most sheltered valleys Sunday night,
given the clear skies and light winds in place. The blended
guidance continues to be bullish with the lows west of I-75, but
modifications were made to align more with the COOP MOS trends and
what we typically see, given this pattern. Highs will be
moderating from the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, to mid and
upper 60s by Tuesday. Lows will also follow suit, with widening
ridge/valley splits heading into Wednesday morning. A cold front
will pass through Wednesday into Wednesday night, but moisture
looks limited, so mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected.
As 500 mb heights lower across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
through Friday, some bouts of moisture in low level northwest flow
may allow for some light shower activity at times.
Temperatures will be the bigger story, with highs retreating to
the lower and middle 50s by Friday. While confidence is lower on
the details this far out, whatever locations that miss out on the
freezing temperatures this weekend, will likely not be able to
avoid seeing freezing temperatures by next weekend or perhaps just
beyond if model trends hold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026
MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings were across much of the central and
southern portions of the forecast area at the 06Z TAF issuance.
Ceilings are forecast to break up from north to south during the
night, with ceilings dissipating area wide through 12z. Assuming
clouds do dry up, localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition
should develop again, but it's not expected to impact TAF sites.
VFR conditions are expected to return areawide late in the
morning and last through the end of the period. North to northwest
winds at less than 10 kts are expected until around 00z Sunday
before becoming light and variable through the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 1:13 AM EST---------------
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