IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:16 AM EST077
FXUS63 KIWX 060816
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
316 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers today into
tonight, mainly for areas west of Interstate 69 in northern IN
and southwest MI.
- Cool and breezy today into Saturday with highs near 50 degrees.
- Dry and warmer than average weather returns early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Areas of light rain and drizzle associated with a positively
tilted upper trough and cold front should exit eastern zones by
12z. Today into tonight then features a transition to lake
enhanced/effect rain showers thanks to ongoing cold advection
within deepening north-northwest flow. This occurs on the
backside of a potent vort lobe dropping southeast through the
central/eastern Great Lakes. More intense banding may set up for
a time in sw MI and nc IN later this morning through this
evening as the prevailing flow becomes parallel to the long axis
of Lake MI resulting in stronger frictional/thermal convergence
over eastern Lake MI. Localized rainfall amounts may exceed a
half inch in spots, best chances Berrien MI down into
LaPorte/South Bend/Plymouth. Drying and subsidence eventually
takes its toll on inversion heights by later tonight and
Saturday bringing an end to more organized LE rain. Cooler and
somewhat breezy early November wx otherwise today into Saturday.
Flow regime flattens out Sunday into early next week with more
active westerlies shifting off to the north-northeast. Return west-
southwest flow will usher in a milder pacific air mass with
sunshine and warm advection resulting in a return to above
normal temps. Some degree of upper troughing and CAA then
settles back in for the second half of next week with near
normal temps and non-zero rain shower chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Areas of drizzle and light rain showers with MVFR CIGS and VSBYs
within the drizzle associated with a cold front currently
draped northeast to southwest over the middle of the forecast
area will continue to push southeastward. Drier air will usher
in behind the front, at least for areas not downwind of Lake
Michigan with a northerly flow introducing lake effect light
rain showers to these locales. Kept light rain showers mentioned
for KSBN through 18z Fri and KFWA showers/drizzle should come
to an end after 08z Fri or so. Northerly winds will veer to more
northwesterly late in the period with gusts of 20 to 25 kts
possible.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 3:16 AM EST---------------
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