ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:41 PM EDT040
FXUS61 KILN 171741
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through today. Cooler and drier
conditions will then move into the area for several days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current satellite and mosaic radar loops show tight/compact MCV
over Kentucky about to cross into West Virginia. Rain associated
with this system has rapidly dissipated this morning so this
morning's update was focused on near term rain chances
(lowering) as satellite data indicates we have a little time
before showers/storms re-initiate with the cold frontal / upper
trough passage later this morning and primarily this afternoon.
Boundary layer flow will be veering with time this morning due
to the positive tilt nature of the mid and upper trough, but
enough height falls impinging on a 1.75-2.00" PWAT ribbon over
the southeast half of the ILN forecast area, should be enough to
allow scattered showers and storms to increase in coverage once
the convective temps (around 80F) are breached and low level
forcing from the front arrives. 17.12Z KILN sounding is rather
moist, with weak mid lapse rates aloft, and weak effective
shear. However, flow aloft will increase a bit as the trough
approaches and moves through, so a localized gusty storm can't
be ruled out at the peak of the heating cycle...most likely in
central Ohio but perhaps further southwest along and east of
I-71 into south- central Ohio or northeast Kentucky. Modest
forecast DCAPE (owing to rather moist troposphere and lapse
rates) should keep threat quite limited. Probably one of those
days when looking at the radar in an instantaneous fashion would
suggest a 20-40% PoP would be warranted, but over time should
be rather good coverage in a bulk sense considering increasing
flow aloft, especially southeast 2/3 of the forecast area, so
maintained 60-70% rain chances in the peak of the afternoon
especially along and southeast of I-71. Should see a rather
quick decrease in shower/storm coverage by mid-evening owing to
drying and front shifting out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Precipitation will taper off during the first half of the night
tonight as the cold front pushes east of the area. Cooler and
drier conditions will then move into the area. With low
temperatures tonight, some area locations will drop down into
the 50s, while others will be in the 60s. High temperatures on
Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees. With CAA on
Thursday, expect cu to develop.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slide slowly east across the southern
Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. This will
lead to dry conditions and slightly moderating temperatures. Highs
on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to highs
in the low to mid 80s by Sunday.
Mid level troughing over the central US will shift slowly east
through early next week. As it does the surface high will weaken
across our area as moisture begins to increase from the the south.
This will result in increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms
from south to north across the area Monday into Tuesday. Highs both
Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the cold
front in eastern Indiana and western Ohio, and further east in
the open warm sector ahead of the front over central and south
central Ohio. Enough confidence in radar trends/coverage to run
a 2-3 hour period of tempo thunder at ILN/DAY/LCK/CMH with
visibilities and ceilings dropping down to at least MVFR. Some
of the heaviest cores will likely drop visibility to IFR, and
will watch for this potential and amend as needed. At CVG/LUK,
still some measure of uncertainty on coverage/timing and until a
better radar trend is seen, just keeping VCTS for now. Winds
veering from westerly to northerly in the wake of the front this
evening, remaining in the 6-10kt range even after dark, with
some potential for winds to turn NNE or even NE as the night
wears on.
Did include some brief valley fog at KLUK later tonight, but
confidence in visibility is not high, given the winds staying up
a little bit and some residual high clouds.
Outside of that, expect fair weather cumulus to develop quite
rapidly in the morning on Thursday in the cold advection, and
may locally become broken late morning into the early afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Binau
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:41 PM EDT---------------
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