PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:09 AM CST902
FXUS63 KPAH 061709
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning remain in effect for
tonight. Low temperatures Saturday morning will reach the
30s, followed by highs only in the 50s. A Freeze Watch also
remains in effect Saturday night, as the growing season likely
will come to an end Sunday morning.
- Temperatures trend above normal Monday through Wednesday with
highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
- There is a 20-30% chance of sprinkles or light rain showers
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as another cold blast
is expected for the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
A 1025 mb sfc high pressure over the central Plains will begin to
build in tonight with cold tranquil weather conditions. Skies will
quickly clear out by this evening as drier air filters in, favoring
robust radiational cooling overnight. Widespread frost is probable
over most of the FA with areas of freeze expected across the
northwest where the boundary layer will decouple the greatest.
Both the CONSShort and MOS guidance are running slightly warmer
than the NBM, especially across the eastern half where there
will still be a subtle pressure gradient to keep winds at night
around 3-4 kts. Given a shallow temperature inversion that is
about 1C warmer around 500 ft, have not made any adjustments to
the Frost and Freeze headlines for Saturday morning as any
additional locations that reach 32 degrees will be very brief.
With that said, a Freeze Watch remains in effect for the entire
region Saturday night as the growing season will likely come to
an end Sunday morning.
The chilly airmass will not last for long as temperatures trend
above normal on Monday to start the week. Highs will rise into
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees through Wednesday. Mild
conditions will not last long as a more amplified trough is
progged to dig into the lower Ohio Valley during the latter half
of the week. In the wake of 850 mb temperatures plummeting
below 0C, a cold front sweeps across the FA Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. While no rain is progged by the NBM, the
LREF would support a 20-30% chance of very light anafront
precipitation Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Would also
not be surprised to see additional sprinkles or light rain
shower chances sneak in to end the week as a potent vort max
will be centered over the FA with a prevailing northwest flow
regime.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
MVFR stratus will continue to scatter out this afternoon as high
pressure begins to build into the region. Drier air will cause skies
to turn clear this evening with tranquil weather conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
decrease to a light northerly wind around 3-6 kts tonight through
Saturday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for ILZ075-076-080>082-084>086-088.
Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for ILZ077-078-083-087-089>094.
MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110.
Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for MOZ111-112-114.
IN...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM CST /midnight EST/ this evening to 8
AM CST /9 AM EST/ Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
KYZ001>022.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 11:09 AM CST---------------
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