JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 4:32 AM EST692
FXUS63 KJKL 040932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer-than-average conditions continue today ahead of a cold
front that passes through Eastern Kentucky this evening and
tonight.
- This cold front will bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder to the area today and into tonight.
- A cooling trend takes place headed into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026
Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the Upper MS
Valley, with a 500 mb trough south over the Central Conus. A lead
shortwave was moving through sections of the Lower OH Valley to
TN Valley and sections of the southeast. Upper ridging was
centered along the southeast U.S. coast. At the surface, high
pressure was centered along the eastern seaboard, while a sfc low
was centered in the upper MS Valley with an associated cold front
extending south in the MS Valley vicinity. Winds in the lowest
levels, roughly 925 mb and below are southeasterly between these
systems, with winds more southerly to southwest from the 850 mb
level and higher in elevation. A few spotty light showers or
sprinkles have occurred over portions of eastern KY during the
past couple of hours, with more substantial showers upstream over
central and western KY down into western and middle TN and points
south. Winds have gusted as high as the 26 to 36 mph range at the
higher elevation KY Mesonet station locations in Pike County
(2770') and Harlan County (4000') since midnight, with gusts
generally no more than 20 mph elsewhere. A few valley locations
remain decoupled as of 4 AM EST, with mid to upper 50s
temperatures, though most locations have been more mixy or mixed
out. PW is currently analyzed in the 1.1 inch or less to 1.6 inch
range from far southeast to southwest, with more substantial
values to the southeast and west.
Today and tonight, the upper level low should track into the western
to northern Great Lakes and become an open wave and merge with a
trough to the north in Canada. At the same time, the lead shortwave
trough should advance across the Lower OH Valley today and into
the middle OH Valley and east of eastern KY later tonight. The sfc
low should trek to the northern Great Lakes/Lake Superior area
tonight, while the trailing cold front moves gradually east
across the Commonwealth, likely clearing far eastern KY late
tonight. As the shortwave trough and cold front approach, moisture
across the region will increase with PW per the 00Z REFS reaching
around 1.1 inches near the WV border to about 1.5 inches
southwest (88th to 97th percentile) around dawn on Wednesday,
before peaking in the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range (96th to 99th
percentile) this afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough and cold
front.
Widespread rainfall is expected from rounds of showers with this
system that should generally be beneficial following recent dry
weather since mid October. These will arrive in the west first,
toward dawn or shortly thereafter and then gradually spread east
and northeast. Convection should wind down from west to east later
this evening and into the overnight hours. Some thunderstorms are
also possible but instability will be limited with MUCAPE peaking
this afternoon on the order of 200 to 500 J/kg per the RAP. Given
the rather substantial forecast PW values, any training convection
could produce swaths of locally higher amounts. Uncertainty
remains with storm total QPF due to the nature of the convection.
NBM based QPF ranges from around 0.25 inches downwind of the VA
border to as much as 0.8 to 1.1 inches in the west and southwest.
00Z REFS mean QPF is around 0.4 inches downwind of VA border
counties (due to downsloping effects at least initially) to around
0.8 in sections of the west and northwest. Higher end event total
rainfall, 00Z REFS 95th percentile values are generally an inch
or more with around 2 inches on the high end in the JKL CWA. Max
amounts are in the 2 to 3 inch range. HRRR runs at times have also
have also had some swaths of higher amounts into the 2 to 3 inch
range for totals. The 06Z HRRR has a bit lighter swaths in or near
the JKL CWA of just under 2 inches. As for FFG values, they are
generally in the 1.5 to 2.25 inch range for 1 hour, with a few
areas over 2.5 inches in the southwest. 3 hour FFG is generally in
the 1.8 to to 2.5 inch range with some higher values in the
southwest, while FFG values in the 6 hour range were mainly in the
2.4 to nearly 4 inches. Based on the 00Z REFS, max 1 hour
rainfall was in the 1.1 to 1.25 inch range while max 6 hour
rainfall was in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. Even if the max values
materialized over the shorter time steps, these would generally
fall below FFG guidance values. Rainfall rates could be sufficient
for some ponding of water on roadways, particularly as leaves
fall and could result in some clogging of ditches and culverts in
some areas. WPC has placed all but the far southeast in a Marginal
ERO for Day 1.
Another concern will be as the rain tapers off from west to east and
mid and high clouds diminish, will be the development of either fog
or low stratus. The higher resolution models generally have some
saturation below 850 mb to end the period. For now have continued
patchy valley fog to areas of valley fog in the grids, with lower
than average confidences if this is more of stratus event or a
bit of a mix of valley fog and stratus pending geographic
location.
On Thursday, eastern KY should remain in southwest flow aloft with
the 500mb trough axis progged to extend from James Bay into the
Great Lakes to portions of the Plains. The column should continue to
dry on Thursday, with PW falling from around 0.9 inches east to 0.6
inches west at dawn per the 00Z REFS to roughly 0.5 to 0.65 inches
or the 50th to 60th percentile by early Thursday evening. Weak sfc
high pressure should build in behind the front into the Lower OH and
TN Valleys on Thursday. A trend of drier weather with decreasing
clouds by the afternoon is expected.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026
Another disturbance will trek from the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
move towards the OH/TN valleys to begin the long term period. At the
same time, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes region will
meander southward towards the Ohio River. This trough will cross the
area to end the week and bring a shot of colder, drier air as we
head into the weekend. Following highs in the 60s to near 70 on
Friday, temperatures will drop into the 50s for highs Saturday and
into the 30s for lows particularly in valleys on Sunday morning.
Monday morning appears to be the coldest, with lows well into the
30s for most locations. Lingering cloud cover may impact how cold
the sheltered valleys get, but it is not out of the question that
some of the more sheltered valley locations may see lows in the 20s
Monday morning. Due to the cold morning temperatures, frost appears
likely.
At this point, a fairly quiet synoptic pattern is currently
anticipated from early to the middle portion of next week, with
surface high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Model
guidance has some spread in terms of the positioning and strength of
troughing across the southeast CONUS early next week. The 00Z ECMWF
and the 0Z EMCWF ensemble mean have ridging in the southeast to
begin the week. The 0Z GFS and 0Z GFS ensemble mean keep a trough in
the southeast at that time. Both scenarios would result in very
minimal or no chances for rain from early to the middle of next
week. The consensus is for temperatures to hovering near normal,
with daytime highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026
VFR generally prevailed across the area at issuance time and VFR
should generally prevail through the first 6 to 9 hours of the
period though . Atmospheric moisture increases ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, with clouds thickening and
lowering. Ceilings gradually lower from west to east toward or
into the MVFR range between 14Z and around 23Z. Showers may affect
western portions of the area as early as 09Z and 12Z, with areas
of showers and MVFR or perhaps briefly lower reductions spreading
from west to east between about 12Z and 18Z, with strengthening
southerly winds in this same time frame. Winds will strengthen
aloft first, so some marginal LLWS is possible initially. Surface
winds should be the lightest at northeastern terminals like KJKL
tonight, so confidence in LLWS remains the greatest there. Once
the stronger winds start to mix down after around 15Z, any LLWS
should give way to surface wind gusts of 15-25KT. Additional
showers are anticipated during the last 12 hours of the period as
well along and in advance of the cold front, with MVFR or lower
reductions. Winds become southwest to west at 10KT or less behind
the boundary late. Overall, expect flight conditions to
deteriorate beyond the first 6 to 9 hours of the period as the
storm system approaches and moves into eastern KY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HORTON/JP
AVIATION...JKL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 4:32 AM EST---------------
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