PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:30 PM EST485
FXUS61 KPBZ 022330
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
630 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes accompany this latest forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Area temperature rises nearly 20 degrees above normal
Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the incoming cold front.
2) Rain returns late Wednesday and Thursday, with an unsettled
pattern through the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry sub-700mb air has continued to ensure any lift resulting in
precipitation formation only translates to isolated, brief
sprinkles for portions of eastern OH through northwest PA
today/tonight.
Strengthening warm, moist advection in southwest flow plus
height rises aloft results in high temperatures approaching 20
degrees above the daily averages Tuesday/Wednesday. Though no
records are forecasted to be broken, there are scenarios where
enough cloud cover limiting nocturnal cooling could result in a
few instances of near to record high minimum temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Models have fairly high consistency in lifting an initially
closed upper low and its surface low center NW of the region
Wednesday into Thursday morning, with the surface low becoming
occluded near central MI. The result is broad ascent within WSW
flow combining with weakening surface convergence along the cold
front to produce swaths of rain showers traversing the regional
with a low probability for lightning (less than 15%). Dry
advection plus dry slotting aloft quickly ends rain chances
post-frontal Thursday while slowly dropping temperature (but
remaining above normal) and waiting for the next trough axis to
cross with marginal precipitation chances Friday/Saturday.
Mean ensemble model accumulations for Wednesday/Thursday range
between 0.25" to 1" that preclude flooding concerns. Lower QPF
scenarios exist where forcing splits between a northern/southern
embedded jet that dampens lift to keep rain on the lighter
side. Higher end QPF scenarios (which could touch 2") combine a
better positioned jet with a slimmer of buoyancy to better
maximize the 95th percentile PWAT values in the region for more
efficient rains. Even these high- end scenarios is unlikely to
result in flooding; the most likely impact is nuisance flooding
aided by clogged storm drains from recent leaf loss.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/MVFR ceilings continue at ZZV this evening, but lifting is
expected by 04z as the shortwave departs. At other sites,
scattered to broken high-based stratocumulus, generally at 5 to
7 thousand feet, will linger into the overnight as a weak warm
front crosses. Light and variable wind is expected through the
overnight.
Clouds are forecast to decrease late tonight and towards sunrise
behind the warm front as mid-level ridging takes hold. Light
southerly wind will dominate through the afternoon, along with
VFR conditions.
Outlook...
VFR is expected through under a ridge of high pressure until an
approaching surface front returns rain chances late Wednesday
and Thursday. Subsequent upper troughing could continue
restriction and rain chances into Friday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frazier
AVIATION...Rackley/CL
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:30 PM EST---------------
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