LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 1:17 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...045
FXUS63 KLMK 310517
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
117 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry, mild weather continues through Halloween. Expect increasing
clouds tonight through Saturday.
* Much needed rainfall is likely on Sunday as a weather disturbance
moves through the region.
* Unsettled weather pattern is expected for the middle of next week,
with breezy conditions and moderate to heavy rain showers at times
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Friday Afternoon - Saturday Night...
Broad upper level ridging is in place over the Southeast and Ohio
Valley this afternoon, with sfc high pressure over Lake Michigan. A
weak cold front has pushed into south-central KY, with much drier
air (30s/40s dewpoints) to the north of the boundary across north-
central KY. Drier low-level air will continue to filter in from the
northeast this evening as high pressure builds southeast over the
Great Lakes. The weather will remain very pleasant through this
evening, with only scattered, thin high clouds. Current temperatures
range from the lower 70s in the Bluegrass to the upper 70s/near 80
in southern KY. Temperatures will likely rise at least another
degree or two over the next 2-3 hours before steadily falling this
evening. Temperatures will drop through the 60s and 50s between 8-10
PM.
After sunset, we'll see increasing high clouds ahead of an upper
level shortwave trough lifting northeast out of the southern Plains.
High clouds will become overcast on Halloween, but we'll stay dry
thanks to much drier air in the lower levels. High pressure will
remain anchored over the Appalachians, providing a drying influence.
However, we do start to see northward moisture return up the Lower
MS Valley on the western periphery of the low-level ridge.
Overall, expect a mostly cloudy Halloween with highs in the 70s.
Temperatures will dip into the 60s shortly after sunset. Steady
moisture return continues Saturday night ahead of a compact
mid/upper level wave. Top-down saturation should be quick enough to
yield measurable light rainfall across the SW CWA prior to 12Z
Sunday (7 AM EST). Lows Sunday morning are expected to reach the mid
50s.
Sunday - Monday Night...
The compact mid/upper level trough, positioned just downstream of an
amplifying ridge over the Plains, will cross the Lower OH Valley on
Sunday. Strong low-level ridging will remain anchored over the Mid-
Atlantic, and a notable west-to-east moisture gradient is
anticipated across KY. A 25-30+ kt SSE LLJ will produce stronger
moisture transport up through Middle TN and west-central KY. As
such, we still expect higher rainfall amounts along and west of the
I-65 corridor through the weekend. Current expected rainfall amounts
through the weekend range from less than 0.10" in the Bluegrass to
0.50-0.75" in our SW and west-central KY counties. Drier air to the
east should really eat into rainfall amounts, and areas east of I-75
may be lucky to see measurable rainfall.
The upper level shortwave disturbance exits off to the east Sunday
night, with an upper level ridge building in on Monday. A deepening
upper level trough and sfc low are forecast to develop over the
central Plains on Monday. The model trend is for a dry day across
central KY and southern IN. We should stay dry through at least
Monday night as well, with the Plains system occluding and slowing
down.
Tuesday - Friday...
Notably stronger northward moisture transport takes place Tuesday
into Wednesday ahead of the stacked low pressure system over the
Midwest. A band of moderate to heavy rain showers appears possible,
and the mostly likely timing is currently late Tuesday night through
Wednesday, perhaps lingering into Wednesday night. Breezy southerly
winds will also accompany this frontal passage during the midweek
time frame. The risk for severe storms looks quite low at this time
due to limited instability. It appears the higher risk for strong to
severe storms will be down across the Lower MS Valley.
Given the ongoing drought conditions, the risk for significant
flooding is low. However, a round of heavier showers could certainly
cause some ponding on roads on Wednesday. Drier conditions are
anticipated late next week in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
For the remainder of the overnight period, VFR conditions are
expected with light/variable winds. High cirrus will continue to
move in across the region with skies becoming overcast by mid-
morning. Winds will veer to the southeast during the daytime hours
with high clouds lowering through the day. Cigs will remain VFR
with ceilings remaining above FL250 but will drop to around FL100 by
01/00Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 1:17 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
