JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:52 AM EDT244
FXUS63 KJKL 300552 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
152 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist
through Saturday.
- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new
work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southeast of the
state still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This
is working to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear.
Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s in the most
sheltered valleys to the upper 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid
light winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 40s with
a few ridges spots in the lower 40s. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
A cold front is moving southeast through the Midwest late this
afternoon, and was laid out from around STL to DET. Its parent low
and associated shortwave trough aloft are moving eastward across
Quebec. Another shortwave trough over Manitoba is also moving east
southeast. The shortwaves are working to enhance troughing over
the northeast CONUS, supporting the continued southward
progression of the cold front. The front is forecast to move
through KY on Friday and Friday night. However, ridging aloft will
be making a comeback locally. This occurs in advance of another
shortwave trough advancing northeast out of Mexico into the
central CONUS. With the return of ridging aloft, the front will
lose momentum as it tries to push to our south, and the new,
reinforcing dry air mass will struggle to make it completely into
our southern counties. There will be very little moisture
available along the front, so it shouldn't have much perceptible
effect other than a change in direction of our light winds. The
central CONUS wave will at least have some elevated moisture
streaming east and northeast in advance, and this should result
in increasing mid-high clouds for our local area Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
The extended forecast period opens Saturday morning with an
expansive upper-level ridge across the eastern CONUS and a digging
trough along the West Coast. At the surface, a weak boundary will be
draped near or just south of the area early Saturday morning before
quickly lifting back northward across eastern Kentucky as a warm
front during the day. Low-level theta-e advection will allow
Saturday afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Despite increasing cloud cover, pleasant conditions will
persist for trick-or-treaters Saturday evening, with temperatures
gradually cooling through the 60s after sunset and into the upper
50s closer to midnight under light easterly winds. Temperatures look
to cool further into the low to mid 50s by Sunday morning.
Moisture will steadily advect into the Ohio Valley heading into
Sunday ahead of the developing Plains system, with PWATs climbing
toward 1.00 inch, or around the 80th to 85th climatological
percentile. While rain chances will gradually increase from
southwest to northeast through the day as isentropic ascent deepens
aloft, southeasterly downslope flow may dry out low levels across
our eastern zones, which could result in a sharp QPF gradient. If
this occurs, measurable rainfall would remain light and favored
primarily across western portions of the forecast area, with many
eastern valleys receiving little to no accumulation. Both the 12Z
NAM and GFS feature a sharp cutoff right over the forecast area,
while the ECMWF remains even drier. Confidence in rainfall amounts
remains low as a result. Furthermore, despite notable model spread
regarding daytime temperatures, with an 8 to 10 degree difference
between the 25th and 75th percentiles, southeasterly winds favoring
downslope warming off the higher terrain support the NBM solution of
afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Eastern Kentucky will remain embedded within the warm sector on
Monday as broad southwesterly flow continues aloft ahead of the
deepening Plains system. With Sunday's lead impulse departing and
the primary trough still well to our west, lingering isolated to
widely scattered showers should wrap up by Monday afternoon.
Modest warm-air advection beneath persistent cloud cover will
support Monday afternoon temperatures topping out near 70
degrees, followed by a brief dry lull lasting through most of
Tuesday.
Rain chances ramp back up later Tuesday as deep Gulf moisture surges
northward into the Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching surface cold
front. Continued warm-air advection will support unseasonably warm
conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s on
both Tuesday and Wednesday (10 to 15 degrees above normal). While
the core of a potent 50 to 60 kt southerly Low-Level Jet remains
displaced to our west initially - likely not crossing eastern
Kentucky until Wednesday evening - this strengthening low-level
wind field should efficiently transport rich moisture into the
region well ahead of the boundary, potentially setting the stage
for a widespread soaking rain Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026
VFR conditions were present per ASOS and AWOS stations across
eastern KY at the 06Z TAF issuance time. River valley fog has
likely begun to develop or should soon develop and could result in
localized IFR or worse conditions for some locations through 13Z
or 14Z. However, the TAF sites are still not expected to be
affected and VFR should prevail otherwise. A cold front is
sagging toward eastern KY, with light and variable or south to
southwest winds at 5KT or less to its south. This moisture starved
boundary should sag into northern sections of eastern KY toward
12Z, and near the TN border toward the end of the period. There
will be period of increased moisture along and behind it near the
850 mb level, so a brief window of few to sct clouds around 5kft
agl cannot be completely ruled out. The main effect of the
boundary will be to change the direction of light winds to the
north and northeast between roughly 12Z and 00Z and then eventually
to the east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:52 AM EDT---------------
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